A recent population census of the New Caledonian Imperial-pigeon by distance sampling financed by Province Sud (convention de prestations de services n° C.1492-23) resulted in an average density of 35 pigeons per km² (confidence interval 24-50) and an occupancy of 83% (assessed at 100 points) throughout the Parc Provincial des Grandes Fougères (45 km²). Occupancy for the entire mainland is 42% at 3763 listening points (Theuerkauf et al. 2017). The provided extent of occurrence of 22,600 km² is heavily overestimated. Based on data from Theuerkauf et al. (2017) the extent of occurrence (MCP of all New Caledonian Imperial-pigeon locations) is 12,534 km². If separately calculated for the mainland and Ile des Pins, MCPs are 8,452 km² and 124 km², respectively, in sum 8,576 km². Regarding criterion B1, the species would therefore even qualify as vulnerable. With an average occupancy of 42% (Theuerkauf et al. 2017), the area of occupancy on mainland would be 3,550 km² and on Ile des Pins 52 km². The proportion of mature individuals in the population is certainly not 99%. Barré et al. (2003) reported 8% of 63 hunted individuals to be immature. Létocart (1998) estimated a reproductive success rate of 43% per year per pair, with a breeding attempt every 2-3 years, which corresponds to about 0.1 chicks per adult per year, or an annual reproductive rate of 10%. Assuming a proportion of mature individuals of about 90% would therefore be more realistic, given the species probably reach maturity at about 1 year.
Barré, N., de Garine-Wichatitsky, M., Lecoq, R., & Maillard, J.-C. (2003). Contribution to the knowledge of the New Caledonian imperial pigeon Ducula goliath (Gray, 1859), with emphasis on sexual dimorphism. Notornis, 50, 155–160.
Létocart Y. 1998. Observations par radio-tracking des comportements du notou (Ducula goliath) dans le parc provincial de la Rivière Bleue de aout 1993 à décembre 1997. Service des Parcs et Réserves terrestres, Direction des Ressources Naturelles, province Sud.
Theuerkauf J., Chartendrault V., Desmoulins F., Barré N., Gula R. 2017. Positive range-abundance relationships in Indo-Pacific bird communities. Journal of Biogeography 44: 2161-2163
I am quite surprised about the proposal to lower the conservation status of Ducula goliath. The specie is a very popular game in New-Caledonia. Since 2007, the number of ammunition a hunter can buy is free (previoulsly restrained), and since 2016 (last UICN assesment) number of hunting permit issued by northern province of New Caledonia as increased by more than +60% (dont know the figures in southern province).
On same period, mean deforestation rate on mainland was 2388 ha/yr in 2000-2010 period , and increased to 3090ha/yr in 2010-2020 period (Birnbaum & Al) = D. goliath habitat losses increase by +30% between the two decades.
A very recent population census has been done (Theuerkauf, see above),and as far as I know, southern province and IAC (New-caledonian agronomic institute) are starting a D goliath population study. It would be relevant to wait after the end of this study to re-asses the conservation status.
Jean-Jérôme Cassan
head of conservation department for Northern province
Downgrading Ducula goliath from NT to LC may indeed be used to support the case for “relaxation of hunting laws” (mentionned in Population Trend justification above).
Considering D goliath population dynamics, increased hunting pressure might lead to rapid decline indeed & thus require new assessment in a few years, providing proper monitoring is in place which is not yet the case…
Data provided in comments by J. Theuerkauf and JJ Cassan (and others) have not been taken into account -but should be- to discuss any proposed change.
A conservative and precautionnary approach would not advise to support this propsed change.
BTW, who has filled this proposed change ?
Could there be a conflict of interest ?
The New Caledonian Imperial-pigeon (Notou) by was previously classified as “Vulnerable”, and in 2008 it has been reclassified as “Near Threatened”, in the light of counts that were considered less catastrophic than previously thought (Ekstrom et al., 2000).
On Grande-Terre, the hunting of New Caledonian Imperial-pigeon is authorized on weekends in April, with a quota of 5 pigeons per day and per hunter (environmental codes of the southern and northern provinces). However, there are few controls, and as early as 1978 the issue of declining populations was raised, and various regulations reinforcing the level of protection were adopted by the Territory (Condamin 1978).
Nevertheless, all the work carried out to date has failed to provide a precise understanding of New Caledonian Imperial-pigeon population dynamics, or to estimate hunting pressure. In particular, the precise assessment of sustainable harvest levels was identified at the time as an important missing element to be addressed in the future. There is no evidence to date to support the fact that hunting has increased, but there is no evidence to the contrary either and more important on the sustainability of the hunting pressure. Furthermore, a major survey carried out by the IAC on Tribal Agriculture revealed that nearly 2,720 New Caledonian Imperial-pigeon were hunted by tribal resident families in the Southern Province (vs. 16,900 in the Northern Province) during 2010. A household consumption study carried for the Government of New Caledonia, meanwhile, estimated the number of New Caledonian Imperial-pigeon consumed annually in the Southern Province at 22,935 in 2016-2017 on Grande-Terre.
The Institut Agronomique néo-Calédonien (IAC) in collaboration with Aix-Marseille Université-IMBE will start in the second semester of 2024 a new research study on New Caledonian Imperial-pigeon funded by the François Sommer Fund. The originality of the project compared with previous work dedicated to the New Caledonian Imperial-pigeon intends to integrate demographic approaches, to evaluate the impact of hunting and develop a monitoring and assessment tool for New Caledonian Imperial-pigeon populations. The project aims to assess the variation in New Caledonian Imperial-pigeon densities, harvesting and hunting practices according to the level of forest fragmentation. New Caledonian Imperial-pigeon play major ecological role as a disseminator and is essential to maintain the New Caledonian forests (New Caledonian Imperial-pigeon appeared already no longer present in certain mining areas, such as Koniambo in the northen province).
This new assessment of the New Caledonian Imperial-pigeon situation will take place almost 20 years after the last surveys carried out by the IAC in the South and North Provinces (Chartendrault & Barré 2005, 2006).
Pending these updated studies in collaboration with New Caledonian authorities in charge of environment, a new change in status would add uncertainty to the current situation regarding the real state of New Caledonian Imperial-pigeon populations, and might provide unfounded grounds for increased in hunting. Also, this runs counter to the awareness-raising work that is regularly carried out to promote its conservation. What is certain is that habitat loss is not slowing down. Also, the country’s current tense economic and political situation, linked to the nickel crisis, means that the stakes in terms of access to bushmeat, i.e. increased subsidence hunting, will become certainly higher in the next months/years.
For all theses reasons I do not support the new status changes proposed here.
Chartendrault V et Barré N. 2005. Etude du statut et de la distribution des oiseaux de la province Nord de la Nouvelle-Calédonie. Institut Agronomique néo-Calédonien/ province Nord, New Caledonia
Chartendrault V et Barré N. 2006. Etude du statut et de la distribution des oiseaux des forêts humides de la Province Sud de Nouvelle-Calédonie. Institut Agronomique néo-Calédonien/ province Sud, New Caledonia
Condamin M. 1978. Enquêtes et observations sur le “Notou” (Ducula goliath) Columbidé endémique de Nouvelle-Calédonie. Polycopié, ORSTOM, 45 p.
Fabrice BRESCIA, PhD, Institut Agronomique néo-Calédonien/ New-Caledonian Agronomic Institute (IAC)
Ducula Goliath harvesting levels are very high. Indeed, a major survey conducted by the Institut Agronomique néo Calédonien (IAC) on tribal agriculture (2010) highlights an annual consumption close to 20,000 individuals per year considering only part of the New Caledonian population (tribes inhabitant). Another household consumption study carried out for the New Caledonian government (2014-2017) highlights a consumption of >20,000 individuals per year. These figures therefore highlight an annual harvest of between 20% and 33% if we rely on the population size assessment if we believe the available data (Birdlife 2016; Gibbs et al., 2001). Whether these population estimates are correct, these harvest levels are unsustainable for this type of species, moreover, they are based on consumption data and therefore do not take into account crippling losses, which can be very significant; for a species in the same group, for example, considering hunting European turtle doves (Streptopelia turtur), crippling losses average 10% of all doves shot (Moreno-Zarate et al., 2023). Annual hunting license statistics also show a steady increase in hunting licenses, but especially a sharp rise this year just before the Ducula Goliath hunting season. We have been conducting hunter surveys since 2023 in the North Province and since 2024 in the South Province of New Caledonia to estimate game harvests, including Ducula Goliath, and the first results will be available by the end of 2024 to specify current harvests.
It’s also important to remember that this animal has a particularly important place in Kanak culture, but is also an emblematic species for all New Caledonians. In addition to its importance in terms of biodiversity and ecological functioning, its preservation is of vital cultural heritage importance.
Malik Oedin (malik.oedin.iac@gmail.com)
PhD in population biology and ecology
Independent researcher in bat conservation, wildlife hunting, invasive species, seabirds & island conservation
President Gardiens Des Iles (NGO)
Pacific Bat Conservation Network representative member
We received the following contribution from Société Calédonienne d’Ornithologie:
Below are our remarks, which, unless otherwise specified, apply equally to both the Notou and the Cloven-feathered Dove :
About population size :
• Considering the Notou, the most recent studies are not being taken into account (see Jörn Theuerkauf’s comments), and new studies have just been initiated by Southern province.
• The studies considered in your project are outdated, with most of them conducted within a protected park where the population status does not reflect the condition of the general population facing pressures that do not exist within protected areas.
• You reference ebird 2024, whose data is very limited for New Caledonia and primarily based on observations by tourists in protected parks. For example, the SCO (with over 18,000 naturalist observations in 2023) does not use this tool.
• There is no additional evidence of the stability or progression of the species !
About Population trend :
This unfounded assertion fails to consider the evolving pressures on these species and the threats they pose to populations in the short term:
• Habitat loss : These species depend on primary rainforests. Recent studies highlight the regression of this favorable habitat, both in surface area and quality (species richness), due to human activities (fires, mining, agriculture) and invasive species, particularly the rusa deer, which destroys all forest regeneration. These studies confirm the observations of naturalists and local populations who frequent the forests and who also notice that the fruiting of trees, which are a primary food source for the Notou and the Cloven-feathered Dove, is less regular and abundant, likely due to climate change. This situation drives frugivorous species (pigeons, fruit bats, parrots) to leave the forest and approach inhabited areas and gardens in villages where they are increasingly observed, giving a false impression of abundance and further exposing them to hunter’s shots !
• Hunting and poaching : Regarding the Cloven-feathered Dove, there is no data on hunting, as the species is fully protected by laws, any catch result from poaching, which has never been studied. Concerning the Notou, data on hunting-related catch are scarce, and even scarcer for poaching. Furthermore, existing studies likely underestimate the real importance of catches because although the Notou is a popular game, its hunting remains a fairly secretive practice. A 2010 survey by the IAC on tribal agriculture in New Caledonia (results published in 2014 – see attached document) reveals that 20,000 Notous are hunted annually in the northern and southern provinces, along with 20,000 other game species, including Cloven-feathered Dove and Metallic Pigeon (species protected by regulations and prohibited from hunting at all times). The same study shows that some of this game is commercialized, which is illegal. The actual portion intended for commercialization is therefore likely greater. It is important to note that this study only covers activities within tribes and that hunting and poaching outside of tribes have not been studied. It is also important to note that at the time of this study, New Caledonia was experiencing a period of economic prosperity, allowing a large part of the rural population (including in tribes) to benefit from wage employment or economic activity, particularly in the North Province around the Voh mining complex. It should be noted that New Caledonia is currently experiencing an economic crisis, with an explosion in the unemployment rate (several thousand people laid off due to the suspension of the North factory), resulting in many people in rural areas returning to agriculture, hunting, and fishing for sustenance or subsistence income. The current economic situation inevitably leads to a significant increase in hunting pressure, as evidenced by statistics on hunting permits issued by the authorities of the northern and southern provinces, particularly during the legal Notou hunting period in April (see comments to this effect). It is logical to assume that illegal hunting (poaching) is also on the rise, like legal hunting or more.
For these various reasons, it seems prudent and reasonable to await the results of the new studies and rely on expert opinions before considering a revision of the status of these two species.
Many thanks to everyone who has contributed to this discussion. We greatly appreciate the time and effort invested in commenting. The window for consultation is now closed and we are unable to accept any more comments until 3 May 2024. We will now analyse and interpret all information, and we will post a preliminary decision on this species’ Red List status on this page on 3 May 2024, when discussions will re-open.
Many thanks to all for the helpful comments received. Based on the information on density and occupancy provided by J. Theuerkauf and the area of tree cover remaining in the range, the population estimate is here revised to 100,000-220,000 mature individuals. With regards to the “% mature individuals in one subpopulation”, this refers to the proportion of individuals belonging to the largest subpopulation, however it is noted that this is potentially misleading and this will be revised in future proposals.
Hunting pressure is clearly very high for this species, and it is suggested that this, as well as habitat loss/degradation, may have intensified during the last three-generation period. The population trend is therefore changed to Decreasing, though this is only suspected. Remote sensing data (Global Forest Watch 2024) suggest that forest loss is ongoing at a slow rate within the range (2-3% within three generations), however this does not take into account additional impacts of degradation and this is plausibly driving slow declines. Given also that it is subject to intensive hunting pressure and the high numbers consumed annually, it is plausible that the overall rate of decline may exceed 20% in the relatively long three-generation period of 21.6 years. As such, while uncertain, the suspected rate of decline is tentatively placed in a wide band of 5-29%.
Based on available information therefore, our preliminary proposal for the 2024 Red List would be to list New Caledonian Imperial-pigeon as Near Threatened, approaching threatened thresholds under Criteria A2cd+3cd+4cd.
There is now a period for further comments until the final deadline on 13 May 2024, after which the recommended categorisations will be put forward to IUCN.
The final 2024 Red List categories will be published on the BirdLife and IUCN websites in October 2024, following further checking of information relevant to the assessments by both BirdLife and IUCN.
Assuming that hunting has not greatly increased, I support this change
A recent population census of the New Caledonian Imperial-pigeon by distance sampling financed by Province Sud (convention de prestations de services n° C.1492-23) resulted in an average density of 35 pigeons per km² (confidence interval 24-50) and an occupancy of 83% (assessed at 100 points) throughout the Parc Provincial des Grandes Fougères (45 km²). Occupancy for the entire mainland is 42% at 3763 listening points (Theuerkauf et al. 2017). The provided extent of occurrence of 22,600 km² is heavily overestimated. Based on data from Theuerkauf et al. (2017) the extent of occurrence (MCP of all New Caledonian Imperial-pigeon locations) is 12,534 km². If separately calculated for the mainland and Ile des Pins, MCPs are 8,452 km² and 124 km², respectively, in sum 8,576 km². Regarding criterion B1, the species would therefore even qualify as vulnerable. With an average occupancy of 42% (Theuerkauf et al. 2017), the area of occupancy on mainland would be 3,550 km² and on Ile des Pins 52 km². The proportion of mature individuals in the population is certainly not 99%. Barré et al. (2003) reported 8% of 63 hunted individuals to be immature. Létocart (1998) estimated a reproductive success rate of 43% per year per pair, with a breeding attempt every 2-3 years, which corresponds to about 0.1 chicks per adult per year, or an annual reproductive rate of 10%. Assuming a proportion of mature individuals of about 90% would therefore be more realistic, given the species probably reach maturity at about 1 year.
Barré, N., de Garine-Wichatitsky, M., Lecoq, R., & Maillard, J.-C. (2003). Contribution to the knowledge of the New Caledonian imperial pigeon Ducula goliath (Gray, 1859), with emphasis on sexual dimorphism. Notornis, 50, 155–160.
Létocart Y. 1998. Observations par radio-tracking des comportements du notou (Ducula goliath) dans le parc provincial de la Rivière Bleue de aout 1993 à décembre 1997. Service des Parcs et Réserves terrestres, Direction des Ressources Naturelles, province Sud.
Theuerkauf J., Chartendrault V., Desmoulins F., Barré N., Gula R. 2017. Positive range-abundance relationships in Indo-Pacific bird communities. Journal of Biogeography 44: 2161-2163
I am quite surprised about the proposal to lower the conservation status of Ducula goliath. The specie is a very popular game in New-Caledonia. Since 2007, the number of ammunition a hunter can buy is free (previoulsly restrained), and since 2016 (last UICN assesment) number of hunting permit issued by northern province of New Caledonia as increased by more than +60% (dont know the figures in southern province).
On same period, mean deforestation rate on mainland was 2388 ha/yr in 2000-2010 period , and increased to 3090ha/yr in 2010-2020 period (Birnbaum & Al) = D. goliath habitat losses increase by +30% between the two decades.
A very recent population census has been done (Theuerkauf, see above),and as far as I know, southern province and IAC (New-caledonian agronomic institute) are starting a D goliath population study. It would be relevant to wait after the end of this study to re-asses the conservation status.
Jean-Jérôme Cassan
head of conservation department for Northern province
Downgrading Ducula goliath from NT to LC may indeed be used to support the case for “relaxation of hunting laws” (mentionned in Population Trend justification above).
Considering D goliath population dynamics, increased hunting pressure might lead to rapid decline indeed & thus require new assessment in a few years, providing proper monitoring is in place which is not yet the case…
Data provided in comments by J. Theuerkauf and JJ Cassan (and others) have not been taken into account -but should be- to discuss any proposed change.
A conservative and precautionnary approach would not advise to support this propsed change.
BTW, who has filled this proposed change ?
Could there be a conflict of interest ?
The New Caledonian Imperial-pigeon (Notou) by was previously classified as “Vulnerable”, and in 2008 it has been reclassified as “Near Threatened”, in the light of counts that were considered less catastrophic than previously thought (Ekstrom et al., 2000).
On Grande-Terre, the hunting of New Caledonian Imperial-pigeon is authorized on weekends in April, with a quota of 5 pigeons per day and per hunter (environmental codes of the southern and northern provinces). However, there are few controls, and as early as 1978 the issue of declining populations was raised, and various regulations reinforcing the level of protection were adopted by the Territory (Condamin 1978).
Nevertheless, all the work carried out to date has failed to provide a precise understanding of New Caledonian Imperial-pigeon population dynamics, or to estimate hunting pressure. In particular, the precise assessment of sustainable harvest levels was identified at the time as an important missing element to be addressed in the future. There is no evidence to date to support the fact that hunting has increased, but there is no evidence to the contrary either and more important on the sustainability of the hunting pressure. Furthermore, a major survey carried out by the IAC on Tribal Agriculture revealed that nearly 2,720 New Caledonian Imperial-pigeon were hunted by tribal resident families in the Southern Province (vs. 16,900 in the Northern Province) during 2010. A household consumption study carried for the Government of New Caledonia, meanwhile, estimated the number of New Caledonian Imperial-pigeon consumed annually in the Southern Province at 22,935 in 2016-2017 on Grande-Terre.
The Institut Agronomique néo-Calédonien (IAC) in collaboration with Aix-Marseille Université-IMBE will start in the second semester of 2024 a new research study on New Caledonian Imperial-pigeon funded by the François Sommer Fund. The originality of the project compared with previous work dedicated to the New Caledonian Imperial-pigeon intends to integrate demographic approaches, to evaluate the impact of hunting and develop a monitoring and assessment tool for New Caledonian Imperial-pigeon populations. The project aims to assess the variation in New Caledonian Imperial-pigeon densities, harvesting and hunting practices according to the level of forest fragmentation. New Caledonian Imperial-pigeon play major ecological role as a disseminator and is essential to maintain the New Caledonian forests (New Caledonian Imperial-pigeon appeared already no longer present in certain mining areas, such as Koniambo in the northen province).
This new assessment of the New Caledonian Imperial-pigeon situation will take place almost 20 years after the last surveys carried out by the IAC in the South and North Provinces (Chartendrault & Barré 2005, 2006).
Pending these updated studies in collaboration with New Caledonian authorities in charge of environment, a new change in status would add uncertainty to the current situation regarding the real state of New Caledonian Imperial-pigeon populations, and might provide unfounded grounds for increased in hunting. Also, this runs counter to the awareness-raising work that is regularly carried out to promote its conservation. What is certain is that habitat loss is not slowing down. Also, the country’s current tense economic and political situation, linked to the nickel crisis, means that the stakes in terms of access to bushmeat, i.e. increased subsidence hunting, will become certainly higher in the next months/years.
For all theses reasons I do not support the new status changes proposed here.
Chartendrault V et Barré N. 2005. Etude du statut et de la distribution des oiseaux de la province Nord de la Nouvelle-Calédonie. Institut Agronomique néo-Calédonien/ province Nord, New Caledonia
Chartendrault V et Barré N. 2006. Etude du statut et de la distribution des oiseaux des forêts humides de la Province Sud de Nouvelle-Calédonie. Institut Agronomique néo-Calédonien/ province Sud, New Caledonia
Condamin M. 1978. Enquêtes et observations sur le “Notou” (Ducula goliath) Columbidé endémique de Nouvelle-Calédonie. Polycopié, ORSTOM, 45 p.
Fabrice BRESCIA, PhD, Institut Agronomique néo-Calédonien/ New-Caledonian Agronomic Institute (IAC)
Ducula Goliath harvesting levels are very high. Indeed, a major survey conducted by the Institut Agronomique néo Calédonien (IAC) on tribal agriculture (2010) highlights an annual consumption close to 20,000 individuals per year considering only part of the New Caledonian population (tribes inhabitant). Another household consumption study carried out for the New Caledonian government (2014-2017) highlights a consumption of >20,000 individuals per year. These figures therefore highlight an annual harvest of between 20% and 33% if we rely on the population size assessment if we believe the available data (Birdlife 2016; Gibbs et al., 2001). Whether these population estimates are correct, these harvest levels are unsustainable for this type of species, moreover, they are based on consumption data and therefore do not take into account crippling losses, which can be very significant; for a species in the same group, for example, considering hunting European turtle doves (Streptopelia turtur), crippling losses average 10% of all doves shot (Moreno-Zarate et al., 2023). Annual hunting license statistics also show a steady increase in hunting licenses, but especially a sharp rise this year just before the Ducula Goliath hunting season. We have been conducting hunter surveys since 2023 in the North Province and since 2024 in the South Province of New Caledonia to estimate game harvests, including Ducula Goliath, and the first results will be available by the end of 2024 to specify current harvests.
It’s also important to remember that this animal has a particularly important place in Kanak culture, but is also an emblematic species for all New Caledonians. In addition to its importance in terms of biodiversity and ecological functioning, its preservation is of vital cultural heritage importance.
Malik Oedin (malik.oedin.iac@gmail.com)
PhD in population biology and ecology
Independent researcher in bat conservation, wildlife hunting, invasive species, seabirds & island conservation
President Gardiens Des Iles (NGO)
Pacific Bat Conservation Network representative member
We received the following contribution from Société Calédonienne d’Ornithologie:
Below are our remarks, which, unless otherwise specified, apply equally to both the Notou and the Cloven-feathered Dove :
About population size :
• Considering the Notou, the most recent studies are not being taken into account (see Jörn Theuerkauf’s comments), and new studies have just been initiated by Southern province.
• The studies considered in your project are outdated, with most of them conducted within a protected park where the population status does not reflect the condition of the general population facing pressures that do not exist within protected areas.
• You reference ebird 2024, whose data is very limited for New Caledonia and primarily based on observations by tourists in protected parks. For example, the SCO (with over 18,000 naturalist observations in 2023) does not use this tool.
• There is no additional evidence of the stability or progression of the species !
About Population trend :
This unfounded assertion fails to consider the evolving pressures on these species and the threats they pose to populations in the short term:
• Habitat loss : These species depend on primary rainforests. Recent studies highlight the regression of this favorable habitat, both in surface area and quality (species richness), due to human activities (fires, mining, agriculture) and invasive species, particularly the rusa deer, which destroys all forest regeneration. These studies confirm the observations of naturalists and local populations who frequent the forests and who also notice that the fruiting of trees, which are a primary food source for the Notou and the Cloven-feathered Dove, is less regular and abundant, likely due to climate change. This situation drives frugivorous species (pigeons, fruit bats, parrots) to leave the forest and approach inhabited areas and gardens in villages where they are increasingly observed, giving a false impression of abundance and further exposing them to hunter’s shots !
• Hunting and poaching : Regarding the Cloven-feathered Dove, there is no data on hunting, as the species is fully protected by laws, any catch result from poaching, which has never been studied. Concerning the Notou, data on hunting-related catch are scarce, and even scarcer for poaching. Furthermore, existing studies likely underestimate the real importance of catches because although the Notou is a popular game, its hunting remains a fairly secretive practice. A 2010 survey by the IAC on tribal agriculture in New Caledonia (results published in 2014 – see attached document) reveals that 20,000 Notous are hunted annually in the northern and southern provinces, along with 20,000 other game species, including Cloven-feathered Dove and Metallic Pigeon (species protected by regulations and prohibited from hunting at all times). The same study shows that some of this game is commercialized, which is illegal. The actual portion intended for commercialization is therefore likely greater. It is important to note that this study only covers activities within tribes and that hunting and poaching outside of tribes have not been studied. It is also important to note that at the time of this study, New Caledonia was experiencing a period of economic prosperity, allowing a large part of the rural population (including in tribes) to benefit from wage employment or economic activity, particularly in the North Province around the Voh mining complex. It should be noted that New Caledonia is currently experiencing an economic crisis, with an explosion in the unemployment rate (several thousand people laid off due to the suspension of the North factory), resulting in many people in rural areas returning to agriculture, hunting, and fishing for sustenance or subsistence income. The current economic situation inevitably leads to a significant increase in hunting pressure, as evidenced by statistics on hunting permits issued by the authorities of the northern and southern provinces, particularly during the legal Notou hunting period in April (see comments to this effect). It is logical to assume that illegal hunting (poaching) is also on the rise, like legal hunting or more.
For these various reasons, it seems prudent and reasonable to await the results of the new studies and rely on expert opinions before considering a revision of the status of these two species.
Many thanks to everyone who has contributed to this discussion. We greatly appreciate the time and effort invested in commenting. The window for consultation is now closed and we are unable to accept any more comments until 3 May 2024. We will now analyse and interpret all information, and we will post a preliminary decision on this species’ Red List status on this page on 3 May 2024, when discussions will re-open.
Preliminary proposal
Many thanks to all for the helpful comments received. Based on the information on density and occupancy provided by J. Theuerkauf and the area of tree cover remaining in the range, the population estimate is here revised to 100,000-220,000 mature individuals. With regards to the “% mature individuals in one subpopulation”, this refers to the proportion of individuals belonging to the largest subpopulation, however it is noted that this is potentially misleading and this will be revised in future proposals.
Hunting pressure is clearly very high for this species, and it is suggested that this, as well as habitat loss/degradation, may have intensified during the last three-generation period. The population trend is therefore changed to Decreasing, though this is only suspected. Remote sensing data (Global Forest Watch 2024) suggest that forest loss is ongoing at a slow rate within the range (2-3% within three generations), however this does not take into account additional impacts of degradation and this is plausibly driving slow declines. Given also that it is subject to intensive hunting pressure and the high numbers consumed annually, it is plausible that the overall rate of decline may exceed 20% in the relatively long three-generation period of 21.6 years. As such, while uncertain, the suspected rate of decline is tentatively placed in a wide band of 5-29%.
Based on available information therefore, our preliminary proposal for the 2024 Red List would be to list New Caledonian Imperial-pigeon as Near Threatened, approaching threatened thresholds under Criteria A2cd+3cd+4cd.
There is now a period for further comments until the final deadline on 13 May 2024, after which the recommended categorisations will be put forward to IUCN.
The final 2024 Red List categories will be published on the BirdLife and IUCN websites in October 2024, following further checking of information relevant to the assessments by both BirdLife and IUCN.