This discussion was first published as part of the 2023 Red List update. At the time a decision regarding its status was pended, but to enable potential reassessment of this species as part of the 2024 Red List update this post remains open.
Cryptic Forest-falcon (Micrastur mintoni)
Most of this species’ distribution (and, presumably, population) is in Brazil, and the species is listed as NT on the Brazilian National Red List, so the proposal would bring the global and national list into sync.
The population in the Atlantic Forest is known from a small number of locations in Espírito Santo and the south of Bahia, where forest loss and degradation has been more extensive than in the Amazonian part of its distrubution, and therefore definitely merits conservation attention.
The Brazilian Red List should review this species soon, uplisting for VU A4c. According to this new assessment (ICMBio, unpublished), in the Amazon, the models project a loss of habitat for this species between 34.3 and 51.3% between the years 2002 and 2028 (three generations) (Bird et al, 2012). Considering that the species is dependent on well-preserved forests, being sensitive to disturbances and fragmentation, it is suspected that there will be a population reduction due to habitat loss of at least 30% in this period. Besides, the population of the Atlantic Forest is extremely small, with current records for only three locations, all in Espírito Santo and southern Bahia (WikiAves, 2018; Fjeldsa et al., 2020).
Preliminary proposal
Based on the information that a new national Red List assessment is forthcoming, using the latest data on habitat loss within the range, our proposal for the 2023 Red List is to pend the decision on this species and keep the discussion open, while leaving the current Red List category unchanged in the 2023 update.
There is now a period for further comments until the final deadline on 2 July 2023, after which the recommended categorisations will be put forward to IUCN.
The final 2023 Red List categories will be published on the BirdLife and IUCN websites in December 2023, following further checking of information relevant to the assessments by both BirdLife and IUCN.
The previous Brazilian national assessment, carried out in 2013, considered this species as NT. However, an update was performed in 2021 (not published yet) and uplisted this species to VU A4c.
Micrastur mintoni occurs disjunctively in the southeastern Amazon (Bolivia and Brazil) and the Atlantic Forest. The population of the Atlantic Forest is extremely small, with current records only for three locations, in Espírito Santo and southern Bahia (WikiAves, 2018; Fjeldsa et al., 2020). In the Amazon, it is threatened by habitat loss, due to logging, forest fires, and agriculture, and modeling projects a loss of habitat between 34.3 and 51.3%, over three generations (2002 – 2028). The species is dependent on well-preserved forests, being sensitive to disturbance and fragmentation, then it is suspected that there will be a population reduction of at least 30% in three generations, involving the past and future, and was categorized as Vulnerable (VU) A4c.
This national assessment should be published in the coming months.
Preliminary proposal
Based on available information, our preliminary proposal for the 2024 Red List would be to adopt the proposed classifications outlined in the initial forum discussion.
Many thanks for the contributions to the discussion. The projections of forest loss within Amazonia made previously (Bird et al. 2011) have now been superseded by the data available via Global Forest Watch (Hansen et al. 2013) and with WCMC/GFW BirdLife have updated estimates of the rate of forest cover loss for all forest dependent bird species. In this instance the rate predicted is considerably lower than that suggested by the earlier paper, but is sufficiently rapid to warrant concern that habitat loss has been occurring at a rate that gives cause to suspect a population reduction approaching threatened thresholds over the past three generations. This rate is suspected to continue based on 21 years of data at a similar rate.
There is now a period for further comments until the final deadline on 18 February 2024, after which the recommended categorisations will be put forward to IUCN.
The final 2024 Red List categories will be published on the BirdLife and IUCN websites in December 2024, following further checking of information relevant to the assessments by both BirdLife and IUCN.
Many thanks to everyone who has contributed to this discussion. We greatly appreciate the time and effort invested in commenting. The window for consultation is now closed and we are unable to accept any more comments. We will analyse and interpret the information, and we will post a final decision on this species’ Red List status on this page on 26 February 2024.
Recommended categorisation to be put forward to IUCN
The final categorisation for this species has not changed. Cryptic Forest-falcon is recommended to be listed as Near Threatened, approaching the threshold for listing as threatened under Criterion A2c+3c+4c.
Many thanks for everyone who contributed to the 2024.1 GTB Forum process. The final 2024 Red List categories will now be published on the BirdLife and IUCN websites in October 2024, following further checking of information relevant to the assessments by both BirdLife and IUCN.