This discussion was first published as part of the 2022.1 Red List update. At the time a decision regarding its status was pended, but to enable potential reassessment of this species as part of the 2022.2 Red List update this post remained open and the date of posting had been updated.
Updated reassessment for the 2022.2 Red List
Following information received during the Forum consultation, in July 2022 the assessment of the Red-spectacled Amazon and its proposed status for the 2022.2 Red List have been updated:
New distribution maps using the method described in Huang, et al. (2021, Batch-produced, GIS-informed range maps for birds based on provenanced, crowd-sourced data inform conservation assessments, PLoS ONE 16(11): e0259299. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0259299) suggest the range of this species is somewhat larger than the previous assessment. Huang et al. find the Area of Habitat (AoH) to be 27,381 km2; the area of the previously published range map was 10,426 km2, meaning the new range map is much larger, 263% the size of the previous map. Much of this difference is in the extent of the range in Rio Grande do Sul state.
Given that the likely range size is larger than previously used, the population estimate is likely higher than the current estimate of 12,500 mature individuals. This supports the proposed downlisting of the species from VU to NT under the application of IUCN Red List Criteria in Annex 2.
The species´map must be revised. The currently green areas are breeding areas and they are vacated every fall and winter when the whole population moves to its current wintering grounds in Santa Catarina state (the blue areas). There, the population congregates in a few night roosts, keeping the species still threatened, as if an epizootic disease occurs and/or an annual shortage of the Parana Pine Aracauria angustifolia seed cones the parrots rely on as food resource all fall and winter. The species vacated its Aracuri/Esmeralda Ecological Station night roost in the late 1990´s years when the regional Parana Pine remnant forests were cleared. Climatic changes underway can deeply affect the Parana Pine seed cone production and the parrot´s winter range has already suffered seed cone shortages recently. The Parana Pine is considered as CR in the IUCN´s Red List and its seed cone is also used as an important human food source and a large trade chain supplies markets all over Brazil, locally creating an additional threat to the parrots, namely in Parana Pine seed cones low productivity years. Thus, the species status must be kept as vulnerable, despite recent population numbers increase as a result of its protection in the breeding grounds thanks to public awareness of the species conservation status. This parrot population uses few protected areas in its annual cycle, both in its breeding or wintering range. Private land supports most of its population. The high winter populational concentration keeps its future in jeopardy, unfortunately. It is too premature the status change proposed.
We have monitored the population of Amazona pretrei since 1991. In autumn/winter the species migrates to the northeast of Santa Catarina in search of seeds of Araucaria angustifolia. Therefore, the species becomes quite vulnerable due to bringing together the entire population in a single region. Considering that the production of A. angustifolia seeds varies over the years, and that there are no other regions with an extension with forests with araucaria as in the southeast of Santa Catarina, involving the municipalities of Urupema, panel, Urubici, São Joaquim , Lages and Bocaina do Sul, we consider it too premature to remove it from the vulnerable category to Least Concern. We remember that the collection of A. angustifolia seeds has increased by man and there are no planted areas that provide this food.
The population of Amazona pretrei has increased as a result of strong conservation actions that Projeto Charão (AMA/UPF) has carried out, such as: lectures given in basic, elementary and higher education; installation of artificial nests expanding new breeding sites in their breeding area; education with landowners that the Parrot-Charão reproduces by preventing the cutting of the old trees that maintain their cavities. The RPPN Papagaios-de-Altitude was also created in the municipality of Urupema by the Associação Amigos do Meio Ambiente (Charão Project) to provide food for Amazona pretrei and Amazona vinacea.
On the map, the colors that are in yellow must be corrected to green. In the north of RS that appears as possible existing is a reproduction area. All these regions are considered reproduction areas (Prestes et al., 1997). Also, the northeast of the state of Rio Grande do Sul should not be blue. The spaces in blue must be in Santa Catarina only. We do not think it likely that the species can still occur in Argentina today.
I agree with Nêmora and Paulo that downlisting would be premature for Amazona pretrei, and that the distribution maps need to be revised, with:
– areas in Misiones and Paraguay changed from “Possibly Extant” to “Possibly Extinct” (or “Extinct”)
– “Native breeding” areas in Rio Grande do Sul changed to “Native resident”
– many of the “Native resident” areas changed to “Native breeding”
Nêmora has been working with this species for many years and is the best person to assist with these updates. Some information is also summarised by Zulian et al. (2021).
Most of the population is concentrated in a small area of southeast Santa Catarina state in the winter. There, they are heavily reliant on the seeds of Araucaria angustifolia, a tree which is itself listed as globally Critically Endangered. The change in mapped range extent, as noted by David, is unlikely to have much effect on the population estimate, because the birds are censused when they concentrate in their wintering range.
Predictions based on climate models suggest a decline of 90.6% in the area of wintering range by 2060 (Marini et al. 2010).
At state level, Amazona pretrei has been listed as Endangered in Santa Catarina and Vulnerable in Rio Grande do Sul (Fernandes et al. 2019).
References
Fernandes, K. C., Bosso, P., Faria, A. R. G., Kanaan, V. T., Martinez, J., Miyaki, C., Nunes, F., Oliva, L. R.,. Prestes, N. P., Raso, T. F., Scherer-Neto, P., Seixas, G. H. F., Serafini, P. P., Somenzari, M., Sipinski, E. A. & Traylor-Holzer, K. (2019). Ex Situ Conservation Assessment for the Integrated Conservation of PAN Parrots and Grey-Breasted Parakeet in Brazil. IUCN SSC Conservation Planning Specialist Group – Brazil. Foz do Iguaçu, Paraná, Brazil. https://www.cpsg.org/content/ex-situ-assessment-integrated-conservation-national-action-plan-parrots-and-grey-breasted
Marini, M.Â., Barbet-Massin, M., Martinez, J., Prestes, N.P., Jiguet, F. (2010). Applying ecological niche modelling to plan conservation actions for the Red-spectacled Amazon (Amazona pretrei). Biological Conservation 143, 102–112. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.biocon.2009.09.009
Zulian, V., Miller, D.A.W., Ferraz, G. (2021). Endemic and Threatened Amazona Parrots of the Atlantic Forest: An Overview of Their Geographic Range and Population Size. Diversity 13, 416. https://doi.org/10.3390/d13090416
In summary, we disagree with down-listing the species to Near Threatened, as the species is still under threat due to habitat loss, illegal trade, low cavity availability, food resource availability and potential disease risk. Thus, we below present data that justify the maintenance of the species listed as (Vulnerable) VU A3cde.
A group of specialists, modelers and mentors have developed a Population Viability Analysis (PVA) for Amazona pretrei (see workgroup members below), to be used in the Brazilian Red List Assessment. The model included species biology based on the field knowledge available, habitat loss (1.53% of annual habitat loss considering 40 years of monitoring, using MapBiomas data; Souza et al. 2020), illegal trade, nest cavity dynamics and a potential risk of emergent diseases (bornavirus and circovirus).
Regarding the used parameters, the scenarios were built for the next 100 years (with 1000 iterations each), the generation length followed Bird et al. (2020) and worst, best and optimistic scenarios were run to provide a basis for robust decisions.
Although the results of the PVA did not meet criteria E as its ‘best-guess’ scenario indicated a null probability of extinction in 100 years, its outcomes indicate that a population decline of 37% is expected in the next 32 years (generation length = 10,58 years; Bird et al., 2020) allowing the use of criteria A.
It is important to mention that:
– The PVA analysis is not published yet, but more details are available on request.
– This same workgroup has built a species distribution map (also available on request) that was the basis for the habitat loss calculation.
– It is important to adapt the generation length values to the most recent available data: 10.58 years (Bird et al., 2020), as done for all other bird species.
Specific questions answers:
– Is the population estimate of c.19,000 individuals still correct?
Population is estimated at 22,332 individuals. According to PVA analysis, this equates to 15,618 mature individuals.
– Is it plausible to assume that the population is undergoing a moderately rapid decline, or has it recovered sufficiently that it is now overall stable? Is there reason to believe that declines may accelerate in the future?
Specialists believe that this species is still under threat and that the decline may accelerate in the future.
– What is the impact of trapping on the population size?
We don’t have a numeric answer for that. However, nestlings are still being removed from their nests by poachers and there is no indication of a reduction in illegal trade of parrots in Brazil.
It is important to consider that an unquantified but likely substantial number of parrots are released each year in Brazil and pose a serious threat of disease dissemination to wild populations.
– Is the range map correct?
There are important corrections to be made as already stated in this forum by Nêmora and Jaime.
Population size and general comments:
Currently, the Brazilian population represents almost the whole population and has been monitored by Projeto Charão since 1991. The last census data (2021) resulted in 22,332 individuals (Nêmora Prestes & Jaime Martinez, personal communication, 2021). 70% of which – 15,618 – are represented by mature individuals according to PVA analyses.
It is crucial to highlight that A. pretrei is a migratory species that gathers the entire population during four months in a much restricted area (~7,046 km²; roughly 5% of the suitable area for the species – according to Species Distribution Model, in prep.) that is under constant pressure mainly for the construction of wind farms. Besides, contradicting what a population data simple plot might suggest, the PVA analysis has indicated an important future decline (37% in three generations), as explained above.
Another relevant piece of information is the fact that today, the species depends on conservation habitat management efforts focused on protected area creation, educational programs and the installation and monitoring of artificial nests (Kilpp et al., 2014).
Additionally, the specialists believe that the species requires mature habitat (forested area, which suffers an ongoing loss – Rosa et al, 2021) to thrive, so the detection of individuals in a new area cannot be directly interpreted as an expansion of distribution, especially if the habitat is composed of small forest fragments – such individuals may instead be prospecting for additional areas of suitable habitat, or flying over unsuitable areas.
Criteria assessment summary:
*Criteria A * – The population decline is projected to achieve 37% in the next 32 years (three generations) based on habitat loss (c), poaching of nestlings (d) and potential risk of emergent diseases (e).
Therefore, Amazona pretrei should be listed as Vulnerable under criterion A3cde.
PVA workgroup members:
Colaborators/Specialists: Elenise Angelotti Sipinski (SPVS), Jaime Martinez (Projeto Charão/AMA and UPF), Nêmora Pauletti Prestes (Projeto Charão/AMA), Glaucia H. F. Seixas (Parque das Aves/Projeto Papagaio Verdadeiro), Tânia de Freitas Raso (FMVZ/USP), Antônio Eduardo Araújo Barbosa (CEMAVE/ICMBio), Patrícia Serafini (CEMAVE/ICMBio) and Marina Somenzari (CEMAVE/ICMBio).
Vortex modelers: Fabio Vannucchi (UNESP), Fabiana Lopes Rocha (IUCN/SSC/CPSG and CSE Brasil) and Mathias Dislich (Parque das Aves).
Species distribution modelers: Alex Bovo and Katia Maria P.M.B. Ferraz (ESALQ/USP). Mentors: Kathy Traylor-Holzer, Phill Miller (IUCN/SSC/Conservation Planning Specialist Group – CPSG) and Taylor Callicrate (Species Conservation Toolkit Initiative – SCTI).
Assessors of Brazilian Red List: Luís Fábio Silveira; Diego Mendes Lima; Fabiane Fileto Dias; Flávio Kulaif Ubaid; Glayson Ariel Bencke; Marcio Repenning; Marina Somenzari; Pablo Vieira Cerqueira; Rafael Antunes Dias; Renata Duarte Alquezar; Thiago Vernaschi Vieira da Costa.
References:
Bird, J.P.; Martin, R.; Akçakaya, H.R.; Gilroy, J.; Burfield, I.J.; Garnett, S.T.; Symes, A.; Taylor, J.; Sekercioglu, Ç.H. & Butchart, S.H. 2020. Generation lengths of the world’s birds and their implications for extinction risk. Conservation Biology, 34 (5): p.1252–1261.
Kilpp, J.C.; Prestes, N.P.; Martinez, J.; Rezende, E. & Batistella, T., 2014. Instalação de caixas-ninho como estratégia para a conservação do papagaio-charão (Amazona pretrei). Ornithologia, 6 (2): p.128-135.
Rosa, M.R.; Brancalion, P.H.; Crouzeilles, R.; Tambosi, L.R.; Piffer, P.R.; Lenti, F.E.;Hirota, M.; Santiami, E.; Metzger, J.P. 2021. Hidden destruction of older forests threatens Brazil’s Atlantic Forest and challenges restoration programs. Science Advances, 7(4): p.1–9. https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.abc4547
Souza, C.M., Jr.; Z. Shimbo, J.; Rosa, M.R.; Parente, L.L.; A. Alencar, A.; Rudorff, B.F.T.; Hasenack, H.; Matsumoto, M.; G. Ferreira, L.; Souza-Filho, P.W.M.; de Oliveira, S.W.; Rocha, W.F.; Fonseca, A.V.; Marques, C.B.; Diniz, C.G.; Costa, D.; Monteiro, D.; Rosa, E.R.; Vélez-Martin, E.; Weber, E.J.; Lenti, F.E.B.; Paternost, F.F.; Pareyn, F.G.C.; Siqueira, J.V.; Viera, J.L.; Neto, L.C.F.; Saraiva, M.M.; Sales, M.H.; Salgado, M.P.G.; Vasconcelos, R.; Galano, S.; Mesquita, V.V.; Azevedo, T. 2020. Reconstructing three decades of land use and land cover changes in Brazilian biomes with landsat archive and earth engine. Remote Sensing, 12(17):2735. https://doi.org/10.3390/rs12172735
I do not find any indication of significant current international trade in this species.
Many thanks to everyone who has contributed to this discussion. We greatly appreciate the time and effort invested by so many people in commenting. The window for consultation is now closed and we are unable to accept any more comments until 21 February 2022. We will now analyse and interpret the new information, and we will post a preliminary decision on this species’s Red List status on this page on 21 February 2022, when discussions will re-open.
Preliminary proposal
Following comments on the current distribution of the species, the range map has been revised as shown above; we would appreciate further comments that enable us to refine the map further. Please note that bird generation lengths are periodically updated following the methodology described in Bird et al. (2020); the most recent value for Amazona pretrei is 8.18 years and hence any reductions need to be quantified over a period of 24.6 years.
To allow an examination of the findings of the population modelling analysis once they become available, our proposal for the 2022.1 Red List is to pend the decision on this species and keep the discussion open, while leaving the current Red List category unchanged in the 2022.1 update.
There is now a period for further comments until the final deadline on 27 February 2022, after which the recommended categorisations will be put forward to IUCN.
Final 2022.1 Red List categories will be published on the BirdLife and IUCN websites in July 2022, following further checking of information relevant to the assessments by both BirdLife and IUCN.
In summary, as posted in the forum in February, we disagree with the species down-listing to Near Threatened, given that the species is threatened by habitat loss, illegal trade, low cavity availability, food resource availability and potential disease risk.
A group of specialists, modelers and ICMBio governamental officers developed a Population Viability Analysis (PVA) for Amazona pretrei to be used in the Brazilian National Red List Assessment. The model included data on the species biology, reproduction and mortality rates, species distribution, illegal trade, nest cavity and potential risk of emergent diseases (bornavirus and circovirus) based on field data from 31 years of monitoring from the Projeto Charão (Red-spectacled amazon conservation project) and specialist experience, in addition to data on habitat loss (1.53% of annual habitat loss considering 40 years window from MapBiomas database and Souza et al., 2020). More detailed information about the PVA was forwarded by email to BirdLife given it is not published yet.
Although the PVA’s results did not attend to criteria E once it’s ‘best-estimate’ scenario indicated a null probability of extinction in 100 years, its outcomes indicates that a population decline of 37% is expected in the next 32 years (generation length = 10.58 years; Bird et al., 2020) allowing the use of criteria A based on habitat loss (c), nestlings poaching (d) and potential risk of emergent diseases (e).
This model and justification were accepted in the Brazilian National Redlisting Assessment and approved in the validation stage. Thus, in the Brazilian National RedList, Amazona pretrei is listed as Vulnerable (VU) under criteria A3cde.
Many thanks to everyone who has contributed to this discussion. We greatly appreciate the time and effort invested in commenting. The window for consultation is now closed and we are unable to accept any more comments until 18 July 2022. We will now analyse and interpret the new information, and we will post a preliminary decision on this species’ Red List status on this page on 18 July 2022, when discussions will re-open.
Preliminary proposal
Following new information submitted per email and via the Forum, this species’ Red List status has been reassessed. Please see the updated discussion topic above for details. Based on available information, our preliminary proposal for the 2022.2 Red List would be to list Red-spectacled Amazon as Vulnerable under Criteria A2acd+3cde
There is now a period for further comments until the final deadline on 24 July 2022, after which the recommended categorisations will be put forward to IUCN. The final 2022.2 Red List categories will be published on the BirdLife and IUCN websites in December 2022, following further checking of information relevant to the assessments by both BirdLife and IUCN.
Many thanks to everyone who has contributed to this discussion. We greatly appreciate the time and effort invested by so many people in commenting. The window for consultation is now closed and we are unable to accept any more comments. We will post a final decision on this species’ Red List status on this page on 1 August 2022.
Recommended categorisation to be put forward to IUCN
The final categorisation for this species has not changed. Red-spectacled Amazon is recommended to be listed as Vulnerable under Criteria A2acd+3cde.
Many thanks for everyone who contributed to the 2022.2 GTB Forum process. The final 2022.2 Red List categories will be published on the BirdLife and IUCN websites in December 2022, following further checking of information relevant to the assessments by both BirdLife and IUCN.