7 thoughts on “Tinian Monarch (Metabolus takatsukase): Revise global status?”
The proposed change seems justifiable to me on the basis of good recent survey data for the species and its successful translocation to another island. I endorse the change.
I mostly agree with the current downlisting. The results of a relatively recent survey (2013, soon to be published) indicate that monarch populations are stable and perhaps increasing on Tinian. With effective interdiction efforts on Guam and all relevant CNMI island, the threat of BTS to these islands (including Tinina) is diminished; it is not entirely removed, however. I believe there has not yet been any credible sightings of captures of BTS on Tinian. There hasn’t been a confirmed BTS sighting on Saipan, the main conduit through which BTS would arrive on Tinian, since 2000 and the last highly credible sighting there was in 2006; there have only been 6 sightings between 2000 and 2019. The one serious concern, however, is that the US military intends to increase its presence and activity on Tinian in the not too distant future. Many supplies will come from Guam as will routine transport of troops and equipment to Tinian. This will obviously increase the threat of the BTS on Tinian and the modifications to habitat the monarch depends on by the military could likewise have negative consequences for the species.
Many thanks to everyone who has contributed to this discussion. We greatly appreciate the time and effort invested by so many people in commenting. The window for consultation is now closed and we are unable to accept any more comments until 21 February 2022. We will now analyse and interpret the new information, and we will post a preliminary decision on this species’s Red List status on this page on 21 February 2022, when discussions will re-open.
Based on available information, our preliminary proposal for the 2022.1 Red List would be to adopt the proposed classifications outlined in the initial forum discussion.
There is now a period for further comments until the final deadline on 27 February 2022, after which the recommended categorisations will be put forward to IUCN.
The final 2022.1 Red List categories will be published on the BirdLife and IUCN websites in July 2022, following further checking of information relevant to the assessments by both BirdLife and IUCN.
While the population of Tinian monarch is stable in the CNMI (and the introduced/translocated population in the northern islands is presumed to be growing), the accidental introduction of the Brown Tree snake onto Saipan and Tinian is still a major concern.
The proposed increase of military testing on Tinian will greatly impact the habitat of the monarch and potentially lead to population declines.
Additionally, continuing severe weather events (likely due to global climate change), increases the threat of introduction of the BTS to these islands – likely to occur during emergency response to natural disasters – where human need is critical and BTS inspection of relief supplies does not occur as thoroughly due to the need for speedy response.
Many thanks to everyone who has contributed to this discussion. We greatly appreciate the time and effort invested by so many people in commenting. The window for consultation is now closed and we are unable to accept any more comments. We will analyse and interpret the new information, and we will post a final decision on this species’ Red List status on this page on 7 March 2022.
Recommended categorisation to be put forward to IUCN
The final categorisation for this species has not changed. Tinian Monarch is recommended to be listed as Near Threatened, approaching the threshold for listing as threatened under Criterion D2.
Many thanks for everyone who contributed to the 2022.1 GTB Forum process. The final 2022.1 Red List categories will be published on the BirdLife and IUCN websites in July 2022, following further checking of information relevant to the assessments by both BirdLife and IUCN.
The proposed change seems justifiable to me on the basis of good recent survey data for the species and its successful translocation to another island. I endorse the change.
I mostly agree with the current downlisting. The results of a relatively recent survey (2013, soon to be published) indicate that monarch populations are stable and perhaps increasing on Tinian. With effective interdiction efforts on Guam and all relevant CNMI island, the threat of BTS to these islands (including Tinina) is diminished; it is not entirely removed, however. I believe there has not yet been any credible sightings of captures of BTS on Tinian. There hasn’t been a confirmed BTS sighting on Saipan, the main conduit through which BTS would arrive on Tinian, since 2000 and the last highly credible sighting there was in 2006; there have only been 6 sightings between 2000 and 2019. The one serious concern, however, is that the US military intends to increase its presence and activity on Tinian in the not too distant future. Many supplies will come from Guam as will routine transport of troops and equipment to Tinian. This will obviously increase the threat of the BTS on Tinian and the modifications to habitat the monarch depends on by the military could likewise have negative consequences for the species.
Many thanks to everyone who has contributed to this discussion. We greatly appreciate the time and effort invested by so many people in commenting. The window for consultation is now closed and we are unable to accept any more comments until 21 February 2022. We will now analyse and interpret the new information, and we will post a preliminary decision on this species’s Red List status on this page on 21 February 2022, when discussions will re-open.
Preliminary proposal
Based on available information, our preliminary proposal for the 2022.1 Red List would be to adopt the proposed classifications outlined in the initial forum discussion.
There is now a period for further comments until the final deadline on 27 February 2022, after which the recommended categorisations will be put forward to IUCN.
The final 2022.1 Red List categories will be published on the BirdLife and IUCN websites in July 2022, following further checking of information relevant to the assessments by both BirdLife and IUCN.
While the population of Tinian monarch is stable in the CNMI (and the introduced/translocated population in the northern islands is presumed to be growing), the accidental introduction of the Brown Tree snake onto Saipan and Tinian is still a major concern.
The proposed increase of military testing on Tinian will greatly impact the habitat of the monarch and potentially lead to population declines.
Additionally, continuing severe weather events (likely due to global climate change), increases the threat of introduction of the BTS to these islands – likely to occur during emergency response to natural disasters – where human need is critical and BTS inspection of relief supplies does not occur as thoroughly due to the need for speedy response.
Many thanks to everyone who has contributed to this discussion. We greatly appreciate the time and effort invested by so many people in commenting. The window for consultation is now closed and we are unable to accept any more comments. We will analyse and interpret the new information, and we will post a final decision on this species’ Red List status on this page on 7 March 2022.
Recommended categorisation to be put forward to IUCN
The final categorisation for this species has not changed. Tinian Monarch is recommended to be listed as Near Threatened, approaching the threshold for listing as threatened under Criterion D2.
Many thanks for everyone who contributed to the 2022.1 GTB Forum process. The final 2022.1 Red List categories will be published on the BirdLife and IUCN websites in July 2022, following further checking of information relevant to the assessments by both BirdLife and IUCN.