This discussion was first published as part of the 2016 Red List update. At the time a decision regarding its status was pended, but to enable potential reassessment of this species as part of the 2022 Red List update this post remained open and the date of posting has been updated.
BirdLife species factsheet Shy Albatross
Shy Albatross Thalassarche cauta is an endemic breeder in Australia, with colonies on three islands off Tasmania. Data submitted to the Agreement on the Conservation of Albatrosses and Petrels in 2016 (ACAP 2016) estimated the total breeding population to be approximately 14,500 breeding pairs: Albatross Island (4,150 ± 500 pairs), Pedra Branca (140 ± 10 pairs) and the Mewstone (9,988 ± 200 pairs).
Albatross Island holds approximately 30% of the global breeding population, and its long-term monitoring program has provided the only comprehensive data on population trends and demographic and breeding parameters. Historically, birds there were exploited for the feather trade, and the population was reduced to c.300 pairs in 1909 (Johnstone et al. 1975; Brooke 2004). Since then, the population has been recovering (Alderman et al. 2011), reaching a peak of approximately 5,700 pairs in 2005-2006, and an estimated 25% of the estimated pre-exploitation population (Alderman et al. 2010).
From 1998 to 2005, the number of breeding pairs on Albatross Island increased annually by 1.9%, but from 2005 to 2014 the breeding population decreased by an average of 2.2% annually (Alderman 2015). Considering the data available from 1988 to 2015 in term of absolute numbers of breeding pairs (3736 and 4153, respectively), the population of Albatross Island has changed little over the last 28 years. However, projecting the population decline observed over the last 10 years forward over three generations (60 years, based on a generation length estimated by BirdLife to be 20 years) implies an overall population decline of 33%.
In addition, Thompson et al. (2015) used an age-, stage- and sex-structured population model to explore potential relationships between local environmental factors and albatross breeding success while accounting for fisheries bycatch by trawl and longline fisheries. Using rain and temperature forecasts under climate scenarios A2 (high emissions) and B1 (low emissions), the population on Albatross Island is predicted to decline by 1,865 breeding pairs (or 45% of the 2015 level) by 2100.
Fewer population data are available for Mewstone Island (holding around 69% of the population) as aerial surveys are logistically complex. However, based on the known foraging distribution of birds breeding there, there is a risk of overlap with fisheries and thus accidental bycatch (Alderman et al. 2011).
Although this species is exposed to threats including marine debris, plastic ingestion and pollution, incidental mortality in fishing gear is thought to pose the greatest threat (Brothers et al. 1997; Abbott et al. 2006; Gales et al. 1998; Baker et al. 2007).
Given the threats affecting the species, the ongoing declines in the 30% of the population during the last 10 years, and the projected future declines, this species appears to qualify for uplisting to Vulnerable under criterion A2bde+3bde+4bde.
Any comments on the proposed uplisting are welcome.
References
Abbott, C.L., Double, M.C., Baker, G.B., Gales, R., Lashko, A., Robertson, C.J.R., and Ryan, P.G. (2006). Molecular provenance analysis for shy and white-capped albatrosses killed by fisheries interactions in Australia, New Zealand and South Africa. Conservation Genetics 7: 531-542.
Agreement on the Conservation of Albatrosses and Petrels. 2016. ACAP Species assessments: Shy Albatross Thalassarche cauta. Unpublished data.
Alderman, R., Gales, R., Hobday, A.J., Candy, S.G. (2010) Post-fledging survival and dispersal of shy albatross from three breeding colonies in Tasmania. Mar Ecol Prog Ser 405:271-285
Alderman, R.; Gales, R.; Tuck, G. N.; Lebreton, J. D. (2011). Global population status of shy albatross and an assessment of colony-specific trends and drivers. Wildlife Research 38: 672-686.
Alderman, R. (2015). Shy Albatross in Australia: population and conservation assessment. Report for the 2014-2015 season. MARINE Conservation Program, DPIPWE, Hobart.
Baker, G.B., Double, M.C., Gales, R., Tuck, G.N., Abbott, C.L., Ryan, P.G., Petersen, S.L., Robertson, C.J.R., and Alderman, R. (2007). A global assessment of the impact of fisheries-related mortality on shy and white-capped albatrosses: Conservation implications. Biological Conservation 137: 319-333.
Brothers, N.P., Reid, T.A., and Gales, R.P. (1997). At-sea distribution of shy albatrosses Diomedea cauta cauta derived from records of band recoveries and colour-marked birds. Emu 97: 231-239.
Brooke, M. (2004). Albatrosses and Petrels Across the World. Oxford University Press, Oxford.
Gales, R., Brothers, N., and Reid, T. (1998). Seabird mortality in the Japanese tuna longline fishery around Australia, 1988-1995. Biological Conservation 86: 37-56.
Johnstone, G. W.; Milledge, D.; Dorwood, D. F. (1975). The White-capped Albatross of Albatross Island: numbers and breeding behaviour. Emu 75: 1-11.
Thomson, R.B., Alderman, R.L., Tuck, G.N., Hobday, A.J. (2015) Effects of Climate Change and Fisheries Bycatch on Shy Albatross (Thalassarche cauta) in Southern Australia. PLoS ONE 10(6): e0127006. doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0127006
Following the publication of Baker & Garnett (2021) as part of the re-assessment of all Australian taxa for the Action Plan for Australian Birds 2020, the status of Shy Albatross has been reassessed against all IUCN Criteria and is proposed to be listed as Near Threatened A3ce based on suspected moderate declines in the future. Assessment against IUCN Red List Criteria A-D is as follows:
Criterion A
There is no evidence this species has declined over the past three generations (63 years; Bird et al. 2020) and previous projections of future decline based on data between 2005 and 2014 (leading to suggestion the species be uplisted to Vulnerable) appear to have been overly pessimistic based on the latest available data. The number of Shy Albatross pairs estimated to be breeding on Albatross Island was 5,150 ± 430 in 2018–2019 compared to 5,017 in 2008–2009. On Pedra Branca, 109 pairs were estimated to be breeding in in 2018–2019 compared with 130–170 pairs in 2008–2009 (DPIPWE 2019). On Mewstone, 9,988 ± 200 pairs bred in 2014–2015 (DPIPWE 2019), with 4,029 pre-fledging chicks estimated in 2018–2019, compared with 9,500 (7,600–12,400) in 2004–2005 (Alderman et al. 2011, DPIPWE unpublished in Baker & Garnett 2021). The 21-year trend for 1998–2018 on Albatross Island was +0.74 ± 0.05% p.a. (DPIPWE 2019). On Pedra Branca, the 21-year trend in breeding pairs is negative (–5.9 ± 1.01% -p.a.). Due to interannual variability and the shorter time series of available data, the trend on Mewstone, based on pre-fledging counts, is currently uncertain, although appearing stable (DPIPWE 2019). Given the relative size of Albatross Island and Pedra Branca populations, the overall trend for the species appears to be stable.
Thomson et al. (2015) predicted a decline in the number of breeding females in the Albatross Island subpopulation of over 30% in three generations, however discrepancies exist between the model’s predictions and the most recent empirical data. Thus while a future decline is suspected, there is uncertainty about the rate. Based on the latest available data, Barry & Garnett (2021) suspected that the trend may exceed 20% over the next three generations (63 years). Under Criterion A, the species therefore qualifies for Near Threatened A3ce.
Criterion B
Although the species currently has a tiny breeding range confined to three islands (and an AOO totalling 12 km2), the number of Locations (see IUCN Standards and Petitions Committee 2019) cannot be estimated since there is no single threatening event that could affect all individuals of the species present within a period of one generation. Only the smallest colony, Pedra Manca, faces a threat that can be spatially estimated (loss of nest space to storms and gannets) but this is operating so slowly that this island alone must be considered to support many Locations. Moreover, no continuing decline is inferred, estimated or observed in the EOO, AOO, area, extent and/or quality of habitat, number of locations/subpopulations, or number of mature individuals. The future decline in mature individuals is currently only Suspected, not Projected (see IUCN SPC 2019). Consequently, under Criterion B the species is listed as Least Concern.
Criterion C
The population of this species is estimated at 31,600 (29,800-33,400) mature individuals (DPIPWE 2019) and therefore does not meet or approach the thresholds for listing under Criterion C and qualifies as Least Concern.
Criterion D
Although currently listed as NT D2, and despite the breeding range being very small, there is no threat that could plausibly make the taxon Endangered or Vulnerable over a period of one to two generations. The population size also vastly exceeds 1,000 mature individuals. Under Criterion D the species is assessed as Least Concern.
Considering the above, the species is proposed to be listed as Near Threatened A3ce.
REFERENCES
Baker, G. B. & Garnett, S. T. 2021. Shy Albatross Thalassarche cauta. In Action Plan for Australian Birds 2020. (Eds ST Garnett and GB Baker) pp. 138–141. CSIRO Publishing, Melbourne.
Bird, J.P., Martin, R., Akçakaya, H.R., Gilroy, J., Burfield, I.J., Garnett, S.G., Symes, A., Taylor, J., Şekercioğlu, Ç.H. and Butchart, S.H.M. 2020. Generation lengths of the world’s birds and their implications for extinction risk. Conservation Biology 34(5): 1252-1261. DOI: 10.1111/cobi.13486.
Department of Primary Industries, Parks, Water and Environment (DPIPWE). 2019. Shy albatross in Australia: Population and conservation assessment report for the 2018/19 season. Marine Conservation Program, Hobart.
IUCN Standards and Petitions Committee. 2019. Guidelines for Using the IUCN Red List Categories and Criteria. Version 14. Prepared by the Standards and Petitions Committee. Downloadable from http://www.iucnredlist.org/documents/RedListGuidelines.pdf.
Thomson, R.B., Alderman, R.L., Tuck, G.N., Hobday, A.J. (2015) Effects of Climate Change and Fisheries Bycatch on Shy Albatross (Thalassarche cauta) in Southern Australia. PLoS ONE 10(6): e0127006. doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0127006
The Marine Conservation Program at the Department of Natural Resources and Environment Tasmania (formerly Dept of Primary Industries, Parks, Water and Environment, DPIPWE) undertake all annual monitoring of the three shy albatross populations. Based on current, on-going, long-term monitoring data and trends, we no longer support the 2016 proposal to uplist the species to Vulnerable against IUCN criteria. Much of the data cited in the original 2016 discussion is outdated and empirical data collected since then has not matched the projected modelling for the Albatross Island population from that time.
The most recent annual report on monitoring activities (DPIPWE 2021) shows that, for the 2020/21 breeding season, the Albatross Island population had an estimated 5,385 breeding pairs (4910-5947) with a stable trend for the previous 10-year period and a moderately increasing trend for the 41-year monitoring period. The Mewstone population has approximately 9988 (±200) breeding pairs estimated in 2014/15. The annual estimated number of pre-fledging chicks, counted from aerial photographs, is the parameter used to monitor the population on the Mewstone and, for the 15-year time-series from 2004/05–2018/19, there was a stable trend in pre-fledging chick counts. However, the much smaller population on Pedra Branca (81-120 breeding pairs over the past five seasons) shows a steep decline in the number of breeding pairs over the most recent 10-year period (2011/12–2020/21) as well as over the longer 18-year time series (2003/04–2020/21). Nevertheless, due to the relative size of the Albatross Island and Mewstone populations, the overall population trend for the species is likely to be stable.
In general, we support the assessment recently published in Baker & Garnett (2021) Action Plan for Australian Birds 2020.
References
Baker, G. B. & Garnett, S. T. 2021. Shy Albatross Thalassarche cauta. In Action Plan for Australian Birds 2020. (Eds ST Garnett and GB Baker) pp. 138–141. CSIRO Publishing, Melbourne.
Department of Primary Industries, Parks, Water and Environment (DPIPWE). 2021. Shy albatross in Australia: Population and conservation assessment report for the 2020/21 season. Marine Conservation Program, DPIPWE, Hobart.
As one of the authors of the species outlines in Baker & Garnett (2021), I stand by our assessment that Shy albatross should be listed as Near Threatened A3ce.
Many thanks to everyone who has contributed to this discussion. We greatly appreciate the time and effort invested by so many people in commenting. The window for consultation is now closed and we are unable to accept any more comments until 21 February 2022. We will now analyse and interpret the new information, and we will post a preliminary decision on this species’s Red List status on this page on 21 February 2022, when discussions will re-open.
Preliminary proposal
Based on available information, our preliminary proposal for the 2022.1 Red List is, following Baker & Garnett (2021) and the application of the data therein against IUCN Criteria (see above), to list Shy Albatross as Near Threatened, approaching the threshold for listing as threatened under Criterion A3ce.
There is now a period for further comments until the final deadline on 27 February 2022, after which the recommended categorisations will be put forward to IUCN.
The final 2022.1 Red List categories will be published on the BirdLife and IUCN websites in July 2022, following further checking of information relevant to the assessments by both BirdLife and IUCN.
Many thanks to everyone who has contributed to this discussion. We greatly appreciate the time and effort invested by so many people in commenting. The window for consultation is now closed and we are unable to accept any more comments. We will analyse and interpret the new information, and we will post a final decision on this species’ Red List status on this page on 7 March 2022.
Recommended categorisation to be put forward to IUCN
The final categorisation for this species has not changed. Shy Albatross is recommended to be listed as Near Threatened, approaching the threshold for listing as threatened under Criterion A3ce.
Many thanks for everyone who contributed to the 2022.1 GTB Forum process. The final 2022.1 Red List categories will be published on the BirdLife and IUCN websites in July 2022, following further checking of information relevant to the assessments by both BirdLife and IUCN.