9 thoughts on “Black-capped Kingfisher (Halcyon pileata): Revise global status?”
The trends from India have not been interpreted here as they are intended to be. The trend graph has a wide confidence ribbon due to uncertain estimates in the time-bins between the year 2000 and 2012. Every estimate plotted on the map is relative to the pre-2000 values and the relative change in 2018 compared to pre-2000 has relatively high confidence. Note that the estimate for each time period is independent of every other, and uncertainty in one time period has no bearing on any other. The number and CI to look at here is only for the 2018 estimate.
The correct interpretation here is that the species has declined by -85.05% and the 95% confidence interval for the mean ranges from (-85.05 – 11.44) to (-85.05 + 11.44) or -96.49 to -73.61. So the data is confident that the decline in abundance from pre-2000 (median 1995) till 2018 (frequency or reporting) is in all probability more than 73%.
In addition, I think it’s important to treat the current trend as uncertain as it is reported because there is so little confidence in annual change estimates – -5.75+-11.24. Note that the mean change is still negative and over 5% per year.
About possible reasons – I cannot say what pressures they might face in their breeding ranges. In India, they almost exclusively winter in coastal mangrove habitat and the edges of mudflats. India has lost a large proportion of its coastal mangroves over the last many years and the loss of optimal wintering habitat may have a role to play.
In Cambodia Goes (2013) described the species as a ‘common and widespread winter visitor and passage migrant’ with records from all provinces and variety of wetland habitats.
There is insufficient evidence (IMO) to suggest it has subsequently declined but it may while have done.
I didn’t detect any on a fairly comprehensive survey of the central section of the Mekong in Feb 2021 (where I had previously seem the species) but it is pretty widespread on lowland rivers in the Cardamom Rainforest during the winter.
Small numbers appear to winter in fairly highly disturbed wetlands around Phnom Penh but it is scarse (and I wouldn’t describe as common + widespread as per Goes).
Goes F (2013). The Birds of Cambodia: An annotated checklist. FFI + RUPP, Phnom Penh, Cambodia
Black-capped Kingfisher is still a common coastal resident in S and SE Asia. However in recent 3 yrs I noticed some obvious absences in key coastal areas mostly mangroves in S and C Myanmar that could support noted declines on the margin of the distribution areas. Further more detailed monitoring is necessary. Quantitive data from most coastal areas in Myanmar and Bangladesh are available.
Proposal to bring Black-capped Kingfisher under Vulnerable category is a welcome step. These winter migrants are seen in most of India’s coastal mangroves usually from September to early part of April. Maximum number are sighted during December and January. Major population are restricted to Sundarbans, Andaman & Nicobar islands ,Bhitarkanika mangroves,Odisha and Coringa mangroves in Andhra Pradesh. Over the last 20 years, their population have declined no doubt but to what extent has not been ascertained. The occasional sighting of these birds in inland lake and rivers has come down drastically. Probably, the reduction of numbers in their breeding ranges has affected their arrival to India. I am of the opinion that the black-capped kingfisher population is on a decline in India and their numbers are around 1000 as per my estimate based on my experience of Kingfisher census at Bhitarkanika. Loss of virgin mangroves and growing anthropogenic pressures on coastal habitats are the reasons for such decline. Therefore, this species needs conservation actions and hence the need for revision of global status
I agree with uplisting, but I feel the need for more data to support the Vulnerable status. Perhaps Near Threatened would be more suitable for now.
I shall like to add that the widespread and unregulated vertical netting in aquaculture ponds (to protect fish/prawns from piscovorous birds like cormorants) in the Lower Central Plains of Thailand is a potentially important threat to Black-capped Kingfisher as it is a regular and common winter visitor to this area. This is evident in data submitted to iNaturalist as follows: https://www.inaturalist.org/observations?project_id=114831&taxon_id=2353&page=
Many thanks to everyone who has contributed to this discussion. We greatly appreciate the time and effort invested by so many people in commenting. The window for consultation is now closed and we are unable to accept any more comments until 21 February 2022. We will now analyse and interpret the new information, and we will post a preliminary decision on this species’s Red List status on this page on 21 February 2022, when discussions will re-open.
Based on available information, our preliminary proposal for the 2022.1 Red List would be to adopt the proposed classifications outlined in the initial forum discussion.
There is now a period for further comments until the final deadline on 27 February 2022, after which the recommended categorisations will be put forward to IUCN.
The final 2022.1 Red List categories will be published on the BirdLife and IUCN websites in July 2022, following further checking of information relevant to the assessments by both BirdLife and IUCN.
Many thanks to everyone who has contributed to this discussion. We greatly appreciate the time and effort invested by so many people in commenting. The window for consultation is now closed and we are unable to accept any more comments. We will analyse and interpret the new information, and we will post a final decision on this species’ Red List status on this page on 7 March 2022.
Recommended categorisation to be put forward to IUCN
The final categorisation for this species has not changed. Black-capped Kingfisher is recommended to be listed as Vulnerable under Criteria A2bcd+4bcd.
Many thanks for everyone who contributed to the 2022.1 GTB Forum process. The final 2022.1 Red List categories will be published on the BirdLife and IUCN websites in July 2022, following further checking of information relevant to the assessments by both BirdLife and IUCN.
The trends from India have not been interpreted here as they are intended to be. The trend graph has a wide confidence ribbon due to uncertain estimates in the time-bins between the year 2000 and 2012. Every estimate plotted on the map is relative to the pre-2000 values and the relative change in 2018 compared to pre-2000 has relatively high confidence. Note that the estimate for each time period is independent of every other, and uncertainty in one time period has no bearing on any other. The number and CI to look at here is only for the 2018 estimate.
The correct interpretation here is that the species has declined by -85.05% and the 95% confidence interval for the mean ranges from (-85.05 – 11.44) to (-85.05 + 11.44) or -96.49 to -73.61. So the data is confident that the decline in abundance from pre-2000 (median 1995) till 2018 (frequency or reporting) is in all probability more than 73%.
In addition, I think it’s important to treat the current trend as uncertain as it is reported because there is so little confidence in annual change estimates – -5.75+-11.24. Note that the mean change is still negative and over 5% per year.
About possible reasons – I cannot say what pressures they might face in their breeding ranges. In India, they almost exclusively winter in coastal mangrove habitat and the edges of mudflats. India has lost a large proportion of its coastal mangroves over the last many years and the loss of optimal wintering habitat may have a role to play.
In Cambodia Goes (2013) described the species as a ‘common and widespread winter visitor and passage migrant’ with records from all provinces and variety of wetland habitats.
There is insufficient evidence (IMO) to suggest it has subsequently declined but it may while have done.
I didn’t detect any on a fairly comprehensive survey of the central section of the Mekong in Feb 2021 (where I had previously seem the species) but it is pretty widespread on lowland rivers in the Cardamom Rainforest during the winter.
Small numbers appear to winter in fairly highly disturbed wetlands around Phnom Penh but it is scarse (and I wouldn’t describe as common + widespread as per Goes).
Goes F (2013). The Birds of Cambodia: An annotated checklist. FFI + RUPP, Phnom Penh, Cambodia
Black-capped Kingfisher is still a common coastal resident in S and SE Asia. However in recent 3 yrs I noticed some obvious absences in key coastal areas mostly mangroves in S and C Myanmar that could support noted declines on the margin of the distribution areas. Further more detailed monitoring is necessary. Quantitive data from most coastal areas in Myanmar and Bangladesh are available.
Proposal to bring Black-capped Kingfisher under Vulnerable category is a welcome step. These winter migrants are seen in most of India’s coastal mangroves usually from September to early part of April. Maximum number are sighted during December and January. Major population are restricted to Sundarbans, Andaman & Nicobar islands ,Bhitarkanika mangroves,Odisha and Coringa mangroves in Andhra Pradesh. Over the last 20 years, their population have declined no doubt but to what extent has not been ascertained. The occasional sighting of these birds in inland lake and rivers has come down drastically. Probably, the reduction of numbers in their breeding ranges has affected their arrival to India. I am of the opinion that the black-capped kingfisher population is on a decline in India and their numbers are around 1000 as per my estimate based on my experience of Kingfisher census at Bhitarkanika. Loss of virgin mangroves and growing anthropogenic pressures on coastal habitats are the reasons for such decline. Therefore, this species needs conservation actions and hence the need for revision of global status
I agree with uplisting, but I feel the need for more data to support the Vulnerable status. Perhaps Near Threatened would be more suitable for now.
I shall like to add that the widespread and unregulated vertical netting in aquaculture ponds (to protect fish/prawns from piscovorous birds like cormorants) in the Lower Central Plains of Thailand is a potentially important threat to Black-capped Kingfisher as it is a regular and common winter visitor to this area. This is evident in data submitted to iNaturalist as follows: https://www.inaturalist.org/observations?project_id=114831&taxon_id=2353&page=
Many thanks to everyone who has contributed to this discussion. We greatly appreciate the time and effort invested by so many people in commenting. The window for consultation is now closed and we are unable to accept any more comments until 21 February 2022. We will now analyse and interpret the new information, and we will post a preliminary decision on this species’s Red List status on this page on 21 February 2022, when discussions will re-open.
Preliminary proposal
Based on available information, our preliminary proposal for the 2022.1 Red List would be to adopt the proposed classifications outlined in the initial forum discussion.
There is now a period for further comments until the final deadline on 27 February 2022, after which the recommended categorisations will be put forward to IUCN.
The final 2022.1 Red List categories will be published on the BirdLife and IUCN websites in July 2022, following further checking of information relevant to the assessments by both BirdLife and IUCN.
Many thanks to everyone who has contributed to this discussion. We greatly appreciate the time and effort invested by so many people in commenting. The window for consultation is now closed and we are unable to accept any more comments. We will analyse and interpret the new information, and we will post a final decision on this species’ Red List status on this page on 7 March 2022.
Recommended categorisation to be put forward to IUCN
The final categorisation for this species has not changed. Black-capped Kingfisher is recommended to be listed as Vulnerable under Criteria A2bcd+4bcd.
Many thanks for everyone who contributed to the 2022.1 GTB Forum process. The final 2022.1 Red List categories will be published on the BirdLife and IUCN websites in July 2022, following further checking of information relevant to the assessments by both BirdLife and IUCN.