Species

Arabian Bustard (Ardeotis arabs)

Geographic Range

Ardeotis arabs occurs across the Sahel zone from Mauritania to Eritrea, Yemen and Saudi Arabia, and south to north–west Somalia, Ethiopia, South Sudan and northern Kenya. There are past records of vagrant individuals in Côte d’Ivoire and central Ghana, though it was likely previously a breeding species in northern Ghana. It has undergone a severe contraction in the occupied range and good populations are now found in Chad (mostly in protected areas) and parts of Eritrea, Djibouti and Ethiopia (Collar and Wacher 2025).

There have been no definite records since 1962 from Morocco, and it is widely considered extinct there (Collar and Wacher 2025). A recent compilation of records concluded that it is also likely extinct in Ghana, Nigeria, Saudi Arabia and near extinct in Senegal, Mauritania and Yemen, while the situation in Mali, Sudan or South Sudan is unclear but considered insecure (Collar and Wacher 2025).

Current Category & Criteria

Near Threatened, approaching thresholds under A2cd+3cd+4cd

Proposed Category & Criteria

Vulnerable A2cd+4cd

Rationale for proposed change

The species was previously assessed at Near Threatened due to moderately rapid and ongoing reductions suspected to have exceeded 20% over three generations. Comparing the numbers of currently occupied sites with the past range and contrasting contemporary records of abundance with current accounts based on a recent review of all occurrence records indicates more rapid reductions have occurred, and declines are continuing. Extirpation and much past decline is attributed to unsustainable hunting, which continues to pose a significant risk, in conjunction with widespread habitat loss through conversion and degradation. Since extirpation from Morocco in the second half of the 20^th century, it is now extinct or close to extinction in Mauritania, Senegal, Ghana, Nigeria, Saudi Arabia and Yemen, and its status is unclear but precarious in Sudan, South Sudan and Mali. It is suspected that rates of reduction over the past and current three generation period likely exceeded 30% and the species is proposed as Vulnerable.

Type of proposed change

Correction (New information)

Timing of genuine change

n/a

Drivers of genuine change

n/a

General request

The BirdLife Red List Team has updated the information held in SIS (IUCN Red List database) on the key parameters relevant to this species (Annex 1) and then applied the IUCN Red List Criteria and guidelines to reassess its status (Annex 2). If you have any information that may affect the value of the key parameters in Annex 1, and thus potentially affect the reassessment, please contribute them directly via the Forum or by email (redlistteam@birdlife.org) by 17 May 2026.

Specific questions

Annex 1: Species data (values of key parameters) *These terms have specific definitions as described by IUCN – please refer to the glossary and definitions page.

Population size

Estimate

Minimum

Maximum

Derivation

Number of mature individuals

Unknown

.

n/a

Justification

There are few records of the species in the current century away from the remaining key sites in Chad, and in Eritrea, Djibouti and Ethiopia. It appears to now be absent or vanishingly rare across much of the range, but the range remains large, seasonal movements in the core of the range and great uncertainty on the status in Sudan, South Sudan and Mali means that it is not thought possible to derive a reasonable population estimate from the available information.

Population trend

Direction/Yes/No

Minimum %

Maximum %

Derivation

Current population trend

Decreasing

.

Inferred*

Justification

There have been rapid declines and a dramatic contraction of the range since the last century, including extinction from Morocco effectively by the end of the 1960s. The pattern of recent records confirms declines have continued this century (Collar and Wacher 2025). It has become extinct in Saudi Arabia due to hunting and was rapidly declining in Yemen until the recent conflict reduced access to sites by hunters (Collar et al. 2024). Comments on previous abundance indicate rapid declines occurred from the second half of the 20^th century in Senegal, Mali, Niger, Chad, Sudan and Ethiopia (Collar and Wacher 2025). It is reportedly near to extinction in Mauritania and Nigeria while in Senegal it now appears to be restricted to a handful of individuals around Djoudj National Park (Collar and Wacher 2025). Hence the population is inferred to be continuing to decline overall.

Generation length* (years)

11.5

Generation length from BirdLife International (2025a).

3 generations/10 years (years)

34.5

Past 3 generations/10 years

Reduction

20

40

Suspected*

Future 3 generations/10 years

Unknown

.

.

n/a

Past + future 3 generations/10 years

Reduction

20

40

Suspected*

Justification

It appears likely that the most rapid rate of reduction occurred between 1970 and 2000, based on the reports collated in Collar and Wacher (2025). The long generation length of the species (BirdLife International 2025) requires appraisal of the rate of reduction since 1991. Based merely on the limited data on the number of sites occupied during the 1950s to 1970s and the number of these potentially occupied currently given in the table in Collar and Wacher (2025) the rate of loss of reported sites falls between an equivalent three–generation rate of 30-70%. Quantification of population change is very limited. In Niger, Thiollay (2006) found none in transects in 2003-2004 in comparison with 101 detected in 1971/1973, though this may have been due at least in part to seasonal emigration (Collar and Wacher 2025). In Chad, sample monitoring between 2011 and 2024 in Ouadi Rime-Oudai Achim Faunal Reserve (RFOROA) showed seasonal fluctuation but overall stability. With most of the reduction occurring prior to 2000, and noting the observation in Collar and Wacher (2025) that it is likely that the worst of the impact of hunting is likely past due to the destruction of the desired quarry species (as noted for Nubian Bustard Neotis nuba: Collar and Wacher 2023, BirdLife International 2025b) the suspected rate of reduction over the past three generations is placed in a band between 20-40% between 1991 and 2026. This period includes the final loss of the species from Saudi Arabia and slide to near extinction in Mauritania, Senegal, Nigeria and Yemen, supporting an ongoing reduction, but with the concentration of the species into protected areas such as RFOROA and the lessening of the impact of hunting the overall decline rate may be slowing. Hence for an assessment of the species that includes both the past and the future the shortest future projection is used, from 1992-2027, and given uncertainty the same suspected rate of between 20% and 40%.

Continuing decline in mature individuals

Yes

.

Inferred*

Justification

The species has become extinct in Saudi Arabia within the past two decades and is near extinct in Mauretania, Senegal, Nigeria and Yemen, although the conflict in the latter appears to have suspended the effects of the main drivers of decline in recent years (Collar et al. 2024). Hunting remains a significant threat that can severely deplete or eradicate a population in a short time, but several other threats identified by Collar and Wacher (2025) are predicted to increase in their extent and severity, including: agricultural expansion and intensification, directly linked to the loss of the species from Saudi Arabia (Collar et al. 2024); locust control potentially removing a key prey base (Crochet 2007) or causing direct mortality; drought exacerbated by climate change, which degrades habitat and may also cause direct mortality; and the impacts of an increasing human population including hunting and habitat degradation. Consequently, a continuing decline in the numbers of mature individuals is inferred.

Continuing decline over 3 years/1 gen

n/a

.

.

n/a

Continuing decline over 5 years/2 gens

n/a

.

.

n/a

Continuing decline over 10 years/3 gens

n/a

.

.

n/a

Justification

The rate of decline is only suspected; there are no data to estimate the rate of continuing decline directly.

Subpopulation structure

Number of subpopulations

No. mature individuals in largest subpopulation

% individuals in largest subpopulation

Values

Unknown

Unknown

Unknown

Justification

Collar (2025) recommended that the species be treated as monotypic, whereas it has been accorded up to five subspecies previously. AviList (2025) currently recognises four subspecies. The reduction in the range has resulted in several apparently clearly divided sections of the population, but the species is certainly capable of dispersal over a considerable distance including to islands in the Red Sea. Consequently, the subpopulation structure is uncertain.

Trend

Unknown

Derivation:

n/a

Justification

n/a

Geographic range

Value

Continuing decline?

Derivation

Extent of Occurrence EOO* (km²)

6,880,000

Yes

Estimated*

Justification

The EOO is the area of a minimum convex polygon containing the mapped current occupied range. The recent extirpation of the species from Saudi Arabia represents a contraction of around 10% in the EOO this century and the expected loss from Mauritania would see a marginal further reduction. A larger future reduction will occur should declines in Niger result in a contraction from the north of the range.

Area of Occupancy AOO* (km²)

n/a

Yes

Inferred*

Justification

The AOO has not been quantified. A continuing decline in the AOO is inferred from the ongoing loss of the species from previously occupied areas, including the recent extirpation from Saudi Arabia.

Locations*

Unknown

Yes

Inferred*

Justification

The loss of the species from Saudi Arabia indicates that the threat from habitat conversion can cause the loss of a significant, if small, part of the population. Considering hunting and drought as separate threats that apply in parts of the range where habitat conversion currently does not, there are likely to be many locations, but the number is inferred to be declining.

Area/extent/quality of habitat

.

Yes

Inferred*

Justification

Widespread habitat degradation and conversion are ongoing due to increasing pressures from the expanding human and livestock population, and habitat quality is also inferred to decline as a result of locust control measures.

Severe fragmentation and extreme fluctuations

Yes/No

Parameter

if yes

Justification

Severely fragmented*

No

.

Remaining populations, even if now separate, are not arranged such that more than half are too small to support a viable population.

Extreme fluctuations*

No

.

.

Restricted AOO/number of locations with a plausible future threat that could drive the taxon to CR or EX in a very short time

No

.

.

Annex 2: Application of IUCN Red List Criteria. *These terms have specific definitions as described by IUCN – please refer to the glossary and definitions page.

Categories and Criteria thresholds

Critically Endangered

Endangered

Vulnerable

Met or approached by species?

Threshold level reached

Criterion A: Rate of population decline over 3 generations/10 years (whichever is longer)

A1

≥ 90%

≥ 70%

≥ 50%

No

.

A2

≥ 80%

≥ 50%

≥ 30%

Met

VU

A3

≥ 80%

≥ 50%

≥ 30%

Unknown

.

A4

≥ 80%

≥ 50%

≥ 30%

Met

VU

Criterion B: Geographic range

B1: Extent of Occurrence EOO* (km²)

< 100

< 5,000

< 20,000

No

.

B2: Area of Occupancy AOO* (km²)

< 10

< 500

< 2,000

No

.

And at least two of (a), (b) and (c):

(a): Severely fragmented*/Number of locations*

=1

≤ 5

≤ 10

Unknown

.

(b): Continuing decline observed/estimated/inferred/projected in

(i) EOO, (ii) AOO, (iii) Habitat area/extent/quality, (iv) Locations/subpopulations, (v) mature individuals

Met

i,ii,iii,iv,v

(c): Extreme fluctuations* in

(i) EOO, (ii) AOO, (iii) Locations/subpopulations, (iv) mature individuals

No

.

Criterion C: Small population size and decline (population size must be ESTIMATED – it cannot be inferred or suspected [see IUCN Standards and Petitions Committee 2024])

Number of mature individuals

< 250

< 2,500

< 10,000

Unknown

.

And at least one of C1 or C2:

.

C1: An observed/estimated/projected continuing decline of at least:

25% in 3

years or 1

generation

20% in 5

years or 2

generations

10% in 10

years or 3

generations

Approached

.

C2: An observed, estimated, projected or inferred continuing decline

Met

.

Plus at least 1 of 3: 

.

a(i): Mature individuals per subpopulation

≤ 50

≤ 250

≤ 1,000

Unknown

.

a(ii): % mature individuals in largest subpopulation

90-100%

95-100%

100%

Unknown

.

b: Extreme fluctuations* in number of mature individuals

.

No

Criterion D: Very small or restricted population (population size must be ESTIMATED – it cannot be inferred or suspected [see IUCN Standards and Petitions Committee 2024])

Number of mature individuals

< 50

< 250

D1.   

< 1,000

.

No

.

Restricted AOO/number of locations with

a plausible future threat that could drive the taxon to CR or EX in a very short time

–

–

D2. Typically: AOO < 20 km² or ≤ 5 locations

No

.

Criterion E: Quantitative Analysis

Indicated probability of extinction in the wild (in 100 years max)

≥ 50% in longer of 10 years/3 generations

≥20% in longer of 20 years/5 generations

≥ 10% in 100 years

n/a

.

Proposed Red List Category

This species is proposed to be assessed as Vulnerable.

Species Range Map

.

References

BirdLife International. 2025a. Generation lengths of the world’s birds. Version 3.1 (August 2025). Available at: https://datazone.birdlife.org.

BirdLife International. 2025b. Species factsheet: Nubian Bustard Neotis nuba. Downloaded from https://datazone.birdlife.org/species/factsheet/nubian-bustard-neotis-nuba  on 23/04/2026.

Collar, N.J. 2024 The Arabian bustard Ardeotis arabs in Morocco: a post-mortem examination. Bulletin of the African Bird Club 32: 194– 204.

Collar, N.J. 2026. Does phenotypic variation in the Arabian Bustard Ardeotis arabs warrant taxonomic recognition? Bulletin of the British Ornithologists’ Club 146(1): 103-114.

Collar N.J. and Wacher, T. 2023. The conservation status of the Nubian bustard Nubotis nuba: a review and prognosis. Bird Conservation International 33: e76.

Collar, N.J. and Wacher, T. 2025. A conservation status review of the Arabian Bustard Ardeotis arabs. Endangered Species Research 57: 341–364.

Collar, N.J., Jennings, M.C., Judas, J., Kessler, M., Porter, R. and Shobrak, M. 2024. The Arabian Bustard Ardeotis arabs in Arabia: past, present and prospects. Sandgrouse 46: 154–174. 

Crochet, P.A. 2007. Western Palearctic birding in Mauritania. Birding World 20: 383– 394

IUCN Standards and Petitions Committee. 2024. Guidelines for Using the IUCN Red List Categories and Criteria. Version 16. Prepared by the Standards and Petitions Committee. Downloadable from http://www.iucnredlist.org/documents/RedListGuidelines.pdf.

Thiollay, J.M. 2006. Severe decline of large birds in the northern Sahel of West Africa: a long-term assessment. Bird Conservation International 16: 353– 365.