5 thoughts on “Sao Francisco Sparrow (Arremon franciscanus)”
Many thanks to everyone who has contributed to this discussion. We greatly appreciate the time and effort invested in commenting. The window for consultation is now closed and we are unable to accept any more comments until 25 April 2025. We will now analyse and interpret the information, and we will post a preliminary decision on this species’ Red List category on this page on 25 April 2025, when discussions will re-open.
Based on available information, our preliminary proposal for the 2025 Red List would be to adopt the proposed classification outlined in the initial forum discussion.
There is now a period for further comments until the final deadline on 4 May 2025, after which the recommended categorisations will be put forward to IUCN.
The final 2025 Red List categories will be published on the BirdLife and IUCN websites in October 2025, following further checking of information relevant to the assessments by both BirdLife and IUCN.
The most recent Brazilian national assessment (2024) considered the species NT:
Ecological niche models were calculated to assess the effect of climate change and deforestation on the extinction risk of bird taxa in the Caatinga, following the method of Gonçalves et al. (2023) and Gonçalves, pers. comm. (2024). The models were based on the compilation of georeferenced occurrence records of the known distribution of the taxa. Data on 19 bioclimatic variables were obtained from the WorldClim 2.0 platform (Fick & Hijmans, 2017; http://www.worldclim.org/current) and used to represent the present and future (year 2050). Two scenarios were considered, one optimistic (SSP2-4.5) and one pessimistic (SSP5-8.5) for 2017 to 2030, and 2017 to 2050. The ecological niche models were superimposed on a layer of vegetation remnants available on the MapBiomas platform (Collection 8.0). Assuming an evidentialist stance and adopting only the optimistic scenario, the model projected a loss of 28% of the species’ suitable habitat (climate and forest remnants) over 10 years, considering losses in the past and future (2020-2030).
It is reasonable to suspect, due to the species’ dependence on forest environments, that the calculated habitat decline could lead to an equal percentage of population reduction for the species. Then, A. franciscanus was categorized as Near Threatened (NT), approaching Vulnerable by criterion A4c.
Many thanks to everyone who has contributed to this discussion. We greatly appreciate the time and effort invested in commenting. The window for consultation is now closed and we are unable to accept any more comments. We will analyse and interpret the information, and a final decision on this species’ Red List category will be posted on this page on 12 May 2025.
Recommended categorisation to be put forward to IUCN
We thank R. Subira for their helpful comment above. Determining the current and future rates of decline is very difficult in the absence of a direct quantification of habitat loss within the range in the last ten years. The information supplied in the comment above based on ecological niche modelling however suggests suitable habitat for this species may be undergoing a moderately rapid reduction in response to climate change and deforestation. On a precautionary basis, a future rate of decline of 10-29% in ten years is tentatively suspected to account for considerable uncertainty and to cover a range of plausible scenarios, including the possibility that this species may undergo a moderately rapid population decline in the future. The recommended categorisation for this species has therefore been changed. Sao Francisco Sparrow is now recommended to be listed as Near Threatened, approaching thresholds under Criterion A3c.
Many thanks for everyone who contributed to the 2025.2 GTB Forum process. The final Red List categories will be published on the BirdLife and IUCN websites in October 2025, following further checking of information relevant to the assessments by both BirdLife and IUCN.
Many thanks to everyone who has contributed to this discussion. We greatly appreciate the time and effort invested in commenting. The window for consultation is now closed and we are unable to accept any more comments until 25 April 2025. We will now analyse and interpret the information, and we will post a preliminary decision on this species’ Red List category on this page on 25 April 2025, when discussions will re-open.
Preliminary proposal
Based on available information, our preliminary proposal for the 2025 Red List would be to adopt the proposed classification outlined in the initial forum discussion.
There is now a period for further comments until the final deadline on 4 May 2025, after which the recommended categorisations will be put forward to IUCN.
The final 2025 Red List categories will be published on the BirdLife and IUCN websites in October 2025, following further checking of information relevant to the assessments by both BirdLife and IUCN.
The most recent Brazilian national assessment (2024) considered the species NT:
Ecological niche models were calculated to assess the effect of climate change and deforestation on the extinction risk of bird taxa in the Caatinga, following the method of Gonçalves et al. (2023) and Gonçalves, pers. comm. (2024). The models were based on the compilation of georeferenced occurrence records of the known distribution of the taxa. Data on 19 bioclimatic variables were obtained from the WorldClim 2.0 platform (Fick & Hijmans, 2017; http://www.worldclim.org/current) and used to represent the present and future (year 2050). Two scenarios were considered, one optimistic (SSP2-4.5) and one pessimistic (SSP5-8.5) for 2017 to 2030, and 2017 to 2050. The ecological niche models were superimposed on a layer of vegetation remnants available on the MapBiomas platform (Collection 8.0). Assuming an evidentialist stance and adopting only the optimistic scenario, the model projected a loss of 28% of the species’ suitable habitat (climate and forest remnants) over 10 years, considering losses in the past and future (2020-2030).
It is reasonable to suspect, due to the species’ dependence on forest environments, that the calculated habitat decline could lead to an equal percentage of population reduction for the species. Then, A. franciscanus was categorized as Near Threatened (NT), approaching Vulnerable by criterion A4c.
Many thanks to everyone who has contributed to this discussion. We greatly appreciate the time and effort invested in commenting. The window for consultation is now closed and we are unable to accept any more comments. We will analyse and interpret the information, and a final decision on this species’ Red List category will be posted on this page on 12 May 2025.
Recommended categorisation to be put forward to IUCN
We thank R. Subira for their helpful comment above. Determining the current and future rates of decline is very difficult in the absence of a direct quantification of habitat loss within the range in the last ten years. The information supplied in the comment above based on ecological niche modelling however suggests suitable habitat for this species may be undergoing a moderately rapid reduction in response to climate change and deforestation. On a precautionary basis, a future rate of decline of 10-29% in ten years is tentatively suspected to account for considerable uncertainty and to cover a range of plausible scenarios, including the possibility that this species may undergo a moderately rapid population decline in the future. The recommended categorisation for this species has therefore been changed. Sao Francisco Sparrow is now recommended to be listed as Near Threatened, approaching thresholds under Criterion A3c.
Many thanks for everyone who contributed to the 2025.2 GTB Forum process. The final Red List categories will be published on the BirdLife and IUCN websites in October 2025, following further checking of information relevant to the assessments by both BirdLife and IUCN.