9 thoughts on “Saddle-billed Stork (Ephippiorhynchus senegalensis)”
How was the lower population size estimate calculated? From the headline numbers for each region minimums would be 400 in West Africa, 6,000 in East Africa and 1,350 in southern Africa – which would be 7,750 individuals. Using a rough 2/3 conversion to mature would be >5,150 mature individuals even before unknown Central African individuals were added.
This lower estimate does feel low, especially with some known range states not being included in the data, and I’d imagine that the upper estimate may be closer to the overall population size – not based on any quantitative data though!
Given the disappearance from areas of West Africa, it would be useful to try to get some data from there about potential rates of decline in the past three generations just in case, though.
From a personal perspective, I would say that it’s an increasingly difficult to bird to see in Kenya for the obvious reason that wetland habitat is under severe threat
I would support the proposed listing as Near Threatened on a precautionary basis due to the significant uncertainty surrounding the status of this species in many areas.
I have to say, when I saw only NT, I wondered why: the situation is surely more serious. If the species has lost its West African population, surely that is c30% of its range, meaning A2 should be considered. Furthermore, I struggle to see that the population is much >10 000, and easily 10% decline, so VU by C1 is an option. To answer Jame’s question for declines elsewhere, I looked at the African Bird Atlas Project data. Initial SABAP2 analyses suggested stable population recently in South Africa because the breeding population is entirely restricted to Kruger National Park and adjacent game reserves. However, logistic regression analysis for the rest of the ABAP range suggests significant and serious declines for the southern and east African populations too, suggesting EN by A2. Here is my report drafted specifically for this assessment: https://birdlifesa-my.sharepoint.com/:w:/g/personal/alan_lee_birdlife_org_za/EdqQNdbVLglMjusF_wzH7-YBKPjtwgPMBNWiD22SA1RMag?e=FUz6Ta
I realise that there are lots of caveats with this dataset and choice of analysis pathway, but just intuitively the species can’t be doing well with its riverine/wetland habitat specialization and the rate of environmental degradation across the continent. VU should be seriously considered. I’m happy to make the data and code available for anyone interested in improving the models and checking my coding.
Many thanks to everyone who has contributed to this discussion. We greatly appreciate the time and effort invested in commenting. The window for consultation is now closed and we are unable to accept any more comments until 28 October 2024. We will now analyse and interpret the information, and we will post a preliminary decision on this species’ Red List status on this page on 28 October 2024, when discussions will re-open.
Many thanks for the input to the topic. The modelling undertaken by Alan Lee is a valuable effort to work with the scarce data available for the species. Further discussion with Alan on the inputs and assumptions of the model is required, and on how a measure of the statistical power of the models can be obtained. Equally it is excellent to see the Kenya Bird Trends showing the interpretation of occupancy change since the Bird Atlas of Kenya (1970-1984) using recent data collected via the Kenya Bird Map project and eBird data since 2009. If recent coverage is assumed to be similar to that achieved across the 14 years of the previous Atlas, then the 37% reduction in the number of occupied quarter degree squares over c. 50 years suggests a moderately rapid rate of Area of Occupancy within Kenya. Given the species responds to environmental conditions by moving large distances and often congregates, range contraction does not relate to abundance in a simple manner. But both contributions reinforce the position taken that there is a decline in the population, and raise the possibility that the rate of the decline may approach threatened thresholds under Criterion A, which was not previously suspected to be the case despite the range contraction from parts of West Africa, as the bulk of the population lies in East Africa. Data quality is insufficient to estimate the rate of reduction, and indeed as noted in the topic also the population size is only suspected due to the uncertainty and gaps in the summed counts, which themselves do not account for unsampled areas or detection issues.
The preliminary proposal for the 2025 Red List would be to adopt the proposed classifications outlined in the initial forum discussion.
There is now a period for further comments until the final deadline on 10 November 2024, after which the recommended categorisations will be put forward to IUCN.
The final Red List categories will be published on the BirdLife and IUCN websites in 2025, following further checking of information relevant to the assessments by both BirdLife and IUCN.
I am sorry to have missed the window for comment, especially given that this proposal seems largely based on my work. While I am agnostic about the uplisting (although the situation in West Africa and other peripheral populations seems to warrant this), there are some details in Annex 1 that are a bit misconstrued based on my work and the sources I compiled for that work. I would appreciate the opportunity to address these so that the information for the assessment is based on the best available information. A few bits of unpublished data I have in the past couple years may also help shed light on responses to droughts, etc.
Many thanks to everyone who has contributed to this discussion. We greatly appreciate the time and effort invested in commenting. The window for consultation is now closed and we are unable to accept any more comments. We will analyse and interpret the information, and a final decision on this species’ Red List category will be posted on this page on 18 November 2024.
Recommended categorisation to be put forward to IUCN
The final categorisation for this species has not changed. Saddle-billed Stork is recommended to be listed as Near Threatened, appproaching thresholds under Criterion C2a(ii).
Many thanks for everyone who contributed to the 2025.1 GTB Forum process. The final Red List categories will be published on the BirdLife and IUCN websites in 2025, following further checking of information relevant to the assessments by both BirdLife and IUCN.
How was the lower population size estimate calculated? From the headline numbers for each region minimums would be 400 in West Africa, 6,000 in East Africa and 1,350 in southern Africa – which would be 7,750 individuals. Using a rough 2/3 conversion to mature would be >5,150 mature individuals even before unknown Central African individuals were added.
This lower estimate does feel low, especially with some known range states not being included in the data, and I’d imagine that the upper estimate may be closer to the overall population size – not based on any quantitative data though!
Given the disappearance from areas of West Africa, it would be useful to try to get some data from there about potential rates of decline in the past three generations just in case, though.
Please see this https://kenyabirdtrends.co.ke/?mode=Species&species=49
From a personal perspective, I would say that it’s an increasingly difficult to bird to see in Kenya for the obvious reason that wetland habitat is under severe threat
The opinion piece published in SIS Conservation, 2020, 2, 7‐9 by Jonah Gula neatly sums up the current situation.
See opinion in: https://storkibisspoonbill.org/publications/sis-conservation-issue-2/
I would support the proposed listing as Near Threatened on a precautionary basis due to the significant uncertainty surrounding the status of this species in many areas.
Hi all.
I have to say, when I saw only NT, I wondered why: the situation is surely more serious. If the species has lost its West African population, surely that is c30% of its range, meaning A2 should be considered. Furthermore, I struggle to see that the population is much >10 000, and easily 10% decline, so VU by C1 is an option. To answer Jame’s question for declines elsewhere, I looked at the African Bird Atlas Project data. Initial SABAP2 analyses suggested stable population recently in South Africa because the breeding population is entirely restricted to Kruger National Park and adjacent game reserves. However, logistic regression analysis for the rest of the ABAP range suggests significant and serious declines for the southern and east African populations too, suggesting EN by A2. Here is my report drafted specifically for this assessment: https://birdlifesa-my.sharepoint.com/:w:/g/personal/alan_lee_birdlife_org_za/EdqQNdbVLglMjusF_wzH7-YBKPjtwgPMBNWiD22SA1RMag?e=FUz6Ta
I realise that there are lots of caveats with this dataset and choice of analysis pathway, but just intuitively the species can’t be doing well with its riverine/wetland habitat specialization and the rate of environmental degradation across the continent. VU should be seriously considered. I’m happy to make the data and code available for anyone interested in improving the models and checking my coding.
Many thanks to everyone who has contributed to this discussion. We greatly appreciate the time and effort invested in commenting. The window for consultation is now closed and we are unable to accept any more comments until 28 October 2024. We will now analyse and interpret the information, and we will post a preliminary decision on this species’ Red List status on this page on 28 October 2024, when discussions will re-open.
Preliminary proposal
Many thanks for the input to the topic. The modelling undertaken by Alan Lee is a valuable effort to work with the scarce data available for the species. Further discussion with Alan on the inputs and assumptions of the model is required, and on how a measure of the statistical power of the models can be obtained. Equally it is excellent to see the Kenya Bird Trends showing the interpretation of occupancy change since the Bird Atlas of Kenya (1970-1984) using recent data collected via the Kenya Bird Map project and eBird data since 2009. If recent coverage is assumed to be similar to that achieved across the 14 years of the previous Atlas, then the 37% reduction in the number of occupied quarter degree squares over c. 50 years suggests a moderately rapid rate of Area of Occupancy within Kenya. Given the species responds to environmental conditions by moving large distances and often congregates, range contraction does not relate to abundance in a simple manner. But both contributions reinforce the position taken that there is a decline in the population, and raise the possibility that the rate of the decline may approach threatened thresholds under Criterion A, which was not previously suspected to be the case despite the range contraction from parts of West Africa, as the bulk of the population lies in East Africa. Data quality is insufficient to estimate the rate of reduction, and indeed as noted in the topic also the population size is only suspected due to the uncertainty and gaps in the summed counts, which themselves do not account for unsampled areas or detection issues.
The preliminary proposal for the 2025 Red List would be to adopt the proposed classifications outlined in the initial forum discussion.
There is now a period for further comments until the final deadline on 10 November 2024, after which the recommended categorisations will be put forward to IUCN.
The final Red List categories will be published on the BirdLife and IUCN websites in 2025, following further checking of information relevant to the assessments by both BirdLife and IUCN.
I am sorry to have missed the window for comment, especially given that this proposal seems largely based on my work. While I am agnostic about the uplisting (although the situation in West Africa and other peripheral populations seems to warrant this), there are some details in Annex 1 that are a bit misconstrued based on my work and the sources I compiled for that work. I would appreciate the opportunity to address these so that the information for the assessment is based on the best available information. A few bits of unpublished data I have in the past couple years may also help shed light on responses to droughts, etc.
Many thanks to everyone who has contributed to this discussion. We greatly appreciate the time and effort invested in commenting. The window for consultation is now closed and we are unable to accept any more comments. We will analyse and interpret the information, and a final decision on this species’ Red List category will be posted on this page on 18 November 2024.
Recommended categorisation to be put forward to IUCN
The final categorisation for this species has not changed. Saddle-billed Stork is recommended to be listed as Near Threatened, appproaching thresholds under Criterion C2a(ii).
Many thanks for everyone who contributed to the 2025.1 GTB Forum process. The final Red List categories will be published on the BirdLife and IUCN websites in 2025, following further checking of information relevant to the assessments by both BirdLife and IUCN.