This discussion was first published as part of the 2022.1 Red List update. At the time a decision regarding its status was pended, but to enable potential reassessment of this species as part of the 2023 Red List update this post remains open and the date of posting has been updated.
Personnel from the Charles Darwin Research Station have recent population estimates which I do not have in hand, but they are all in the field last week and this week, and therefore are unable to comment. They would like to ask to be given a little extra time to comment. Their addresses are Birgit Fessl birgit.fessl@gmail.com, Gustavo Jiménez gustavo.jimenez@fcdarwin.org.ec, David Anchundia david.anchundia@fcdarwin.org.ec, Sabine Tebbich sabine.tebbich@univie.ac.at, and Michael Dvorak michael.dvorak@birdlife.at.
They would like to see the species remain at VU.
Pyrocephalus nanus has declined significantly and is facing very strong pressure from introduced Philornis downsi parasites and introduced rats and cats.
Preliminary proposal
Based on available information, our proposal for the 2022.1 Red List is to pend the decision on this species and keep the discussion open, while leaving the current Red List category unchanged in the 2022.1 update.
There is now a period for further comments until the final deadline on 27 February 2022, after which the recommended categorisations will be put forward to IUCN.
Final 2022.1 Red List categories will be published on the BirdLife and IUCN websites in July 2022, following further checking of information relevant to the assessments by both BirdLife and IUCN.
The species is clearly declining. The population in a major island, i.e., Santa Cruz, has reached very low numbers. As stated by David Wiedenfeld, the impact by invasive species (Philornis, cats, dogs, rats) is very high and spread across different islands. A decision should be reached after examining data collected by Birgit Fessl, David Anchundia and colleagues, but most probably the species should at least remain VU.
The following comment was received from Michael Dvorak after the window for consultation was closed:
“Dear colleagues,
there are population estimates for almost all landbirds breeding on the Galápagos islands based on the results of field work done by the “landbird survey project team” (Birgit Fessl, Erwin Nemeth, Beate Wendelin, David Anchundia, myself and with the additional help in the field by some others) since 2015.
Parts of the data have about particular islands have already been published (e.g. Dvorak et al, 2017, 2020, 2022).
We have also limited information about populations trends, but so far only for the inhabited islands or parts ot them (Sierra Negra on Isabela island!).
We have good information about distributions of the species and also about their habitat.
Therefore an estimation of the extinction risk of these species can be done on the basis of these data and we plan to do exactly this as a next step this year.
The final result will be a re-evaluation of the conservation and red list status of all these species using IUCN-criteria to be published in 2023.
The Galápags landbird project team would therefore prefer to have first this throughout revision of the status of all Galápagos landbirds done (including a discussion with all relevant further experts), which will led to changes in the red list status of several species (to be done this year, and including a detailed discussion of the implications of the data for their red list status).
We are afraid that only submitting raw data out of context could easily lead to premature or even wrong assessemets. We therefore propose to the BirdLife Red List team to postpone the assessement of Little Vermilion Flycatcher (and any other Galápagos landbirds) until next year when our comprehensive paper (or at least a manuscript (to be submitted to the journal Bird Conservation International) will be available.
all the best
Michael Dvorak
Dvorak M, Fessl B, Nemeth E, Anchundia D, Cotín J, et al. 2020. Survival and extinction of breeding landbirds on San Cristóbal, a highly degraded island in the Galápagos. Bird Conservation International. 30:381–395.
Dvorak M, Nemeth E, Wendelin B, Herrera P, Mosquera D, et al. 2017. Conservation status of landbirds on Floreana: The smallest inhabited Galápagos Island. Journal of Field Ornithology. 88:132–145.”
The following comment was received from Gustavo Jiménez-Uzcátegui after the window for consultation was closed:
“Add this paper, where we showed, the possibly extinct of P. nanus on Floreana Islands in 2010, and the comparison the data, with information more than 100 years ago:
Jiménez-Uzcátegui, G. & L. Ortiz-Catedral. 2020. Vertebrate diversity on Floreana Island, Galápagos. Galapagos Research 69: 18-24.”
Preliminary proposal
Based on available information, our proposal for the 2022.2 Red List is to pend the decision on this species and keep the discussion open until 2023, while leaving the current Red List category unchanged in the 2022.2 update.
There is now a period for further comments until the final deadline on 24 July 2022, after which the recommended categorisations will be put forward to IUCN. The final 2022.2 Red List categories will be published on the BirdLife and IUCN websites in December 2022, following further checking of information relevant to the assessments by both BirdLife and IUCN.
Preliminary proposal
Based on comments made that additional information is forthcoming in the next 12 months, our proposal for the 2023 Red List is to pend the decision on this species and keep the discussion open until 2024, while leaving the current Red List category unchanged in the 2023 update.
There is now a period for further comments until the final deadline on 12 February 2023, after which the recommended categorisations will be put forward to IUCN.
Final 2023 Red List categories will be published on the BirdLife and IUCN websites in December 2023, following further checking of information relevant to the assessments by both BirdLife and IUCN.
New information has become available, allowing us to refine the above assessment. An updated proposal will be posted here in due course.
New data gathered by the CDRS Landbird Project has allowed to refine the assessment against Criteria A and C as follows:
Criterion A
On Isabela, rapid declines were detected on Sierra Negra volcano, at a rate of about 80% over ten years (CDRS Landbird Project 2023). Based on this rate of decline, the current population of 50-200 pairs may have numbered c. 240-1,000 pairs in 2013. The species appears to remain common at Alcedo, Darwin and Wolf volcanoes (CDRS Landbird Project 2023), with probably only slow declines or even stable populations. Therefore, under the very precautionary assumption that the population is declining slowly or moderately rapidly at Alcedo, Darwin and Wolf, the overall population declines on the island are suspected at 20-29% over ten years, though declines could likely be slower.
The original population on Santa Cruz may have been several thousands, with declines from the 1960s onward to c. 30 mature individuals in 2023 (CDRS Landbird Project 2023). Assuming that the population numbered c.20,000 mature individuals in 1960 and has been undergoing an exponential decline since then, past declines amount to 65% over ten years, here precautionarily placed in the band 50-79% over ten years. Once commonly recorded on Floreana, the species was sighted until 2007, with the last confirmed record in 2015 (Dvorak et al. 2017, 2021). While it cannot be ruled out that the species still persists on this island (Dvorak et al. 2021), local declines are precautionarily placed in the band 90-99% over the past ten years, with the population now likely stabilising at extremely low numbers. The most recent observational records from Santa Fé date to 2005 (eBird 2023) and the species may be extinct since then. Consequently, the population trend over the past ten years is not assessed.
There are no trend data from other occupied islands, but based on the species’ sensitivity to Philornis downsi (e.g., Mosquera et al. 2022) it cannot be ruled out that the populations are undergoing slow declines. Consequently, assuming extremely rapid declines (90-99% over ten years) on Floreana, very rapid declines (50-79% over ten years) on Santa Cruz, moderately rapid declines (20-29% over ten years) on Isabela, and slow declines (1-19% over ten years) on all other islands, the overall population may be declining roughly at a rate of 21% over ten years. To account for uncertainty, this is here placed in the band 20-29% over ten years (see also Freile et al. 2019).
Criterion C
Distance sampling during 2015-2022 produced the following population estimates (all data from CDRS Landbird Project unpublished data 2023): On Pinzón, the species is common with c. 2,800 pairs (2,000-3,900 pairs). Likewise, it is common on Pinta with 3,060 pairs (2,100-4,500 pairs). On Rabida, the species is fairly common with 220 pairs (130-350 pairs). The population on Marchena is restricted to several patches of dry forest, numbering 500 pairs (30-940 pairs). The population on Fernandina numbers at most 2,500 pairs, though likely less. Isabela holds a population of 15,000 pairs (11,500-20,500 pairs) on Alcedo volcano, of 1,400 pairs (900-2,300 pairs) on Wolf volcano, and of 850 pairs (550-1,500 pairs) on Darwin volcano; the population on Sierra Negra volcano has declined rapidly to 50-200 pairs, while the population on Cerro Azul volcano is likely extinct. The population on Santiago was likely always small; based on the availability of suitable habitat there may be a population of up to 100 pairs left. On Santa Cruz, the species may have numbered several thousand individuals until the 1960s, but a drastic decline left only c. 30 mature individuals in 2023. Once common on Floreana, it is now likely extinct there. It is also presumably extinct on Santa Fé.
Based on this information, the total population is estimated at c. 26,000 pairs (range 18,000-36,000) (CDRS Landbird Project unpublished data 2023). This equates to 52,000 mature individuals (range 36,000-72,000 mature individuals).
Many thanks to everyone who has contributed to this discussion. We greatly appreciate the time and effort invested in commenting. The window for consultation is now closed and we are unable to accept any more comments until 26 June 2023. We will now analyse and interpret the new information, and we will post a preliminary decision on this species’ Red List status on this page on 26 June 2023, when discussions will re-open.
Preliminary proposal
The information submitted by the CDRS Landbird Project provides a solid basis for the assessment against Criteria A and C. Population data from several islands helped deriving a quantification of the population trend, which is here placed in the band 20-29% over the past ten years (see above). Predicting a future population trend appears highly speculative as it is unclear how threats may develop and how the population may react to those threats. Consequently, the species is assessed as Near Threatened, approaching the thresholds for listing as threatened under Criteria A2ce+4ce.
Surveys across several islands suggest that the population numbers around 52,000 mature individuals (see above). This new value is larger than the suspected number given in Annex 1. As such, the species qualifies as Least Concern under Criterion C. The range map has been refined, though the assessment against Criterion B remains unaffected by the new information.
Based on available information therefore, our preliminary proposal for the 2023 Red List would be to list Little Vermilion Flycatcher as Near Threatened, approaching the threshold for listing as threatened under Criteria A2ce+4ce; B1ab(i,ii,iii,iv,v).
There is now a period for further comments until the final deadline on 2 July 2023, after which the recommended categorisations will be put forward to IUCN.
The final 2023 Red List categories will be published on the BirdLife and IUCN websites in December 2023, following further checking of information relevant to the assessments by both BirdLife and IUCN.
Many thanks to everyone who has contributed to this discussion. We greatly appreciate the time and effort invested in commenting. The window for consultation is now closed and we are unable to accept any more comments. We will analyse and interpret the information, and we will post a final decision on this species’ Red List status on this page on 10 July 2023.
Recommended categorisation to be put forward to IUCN
The final categorisation for this species has not changed. Little Vermilion Flycatcher is recommended to be listed as Near Threatened, approaching the threshold for listing as threatened under Criteria A2ce+4ce; B1ab(i,ii,iii,iv,v).
Many thanks for everyone who contributed to the 2023.2 GTB Forum process. The final 2023 Red List categories will be published on the BirdLife and IUCN websites in December 2023, following further checking of information relevant to the assessments by both BirdLife and IUCN.